In all likelihood, the Green Bay Packers will not win 13 regular season games again during the 2020 season. Just about all of the major predictors for regression suggest the Packers are headed for a step back in the win column this season.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, who has a strong track record of predicting regressing teams based on several independent metrics, identified the Packers as the NFL’s top regression candidate in 2020. Matt LaFleur’s team hits many of the predictors, including big ones like point differential, expected wins, record in close games and overall team health, but also smaller ones such as interception percentage, red zone efficiency and record inside the division.
One notable tidbit from Barnwell: The Packers had the worst point differential for a 13-3 team over the past 31 years.
Overall, the Packers were a fortunate team that played really well in key spots and moments, stayed mostly healthy, faced a bunch of bad quarterbacks and received a bunch of good luck along the way. The numbers suggest they were much closer to a 10-6 team in 2019 than 13-3. Had they finished 10-6, they wouldn’t be regression candidates.
The Packers aren’t going to apologize for how they won games last season. Style points don’t really matter in the NFL. LaFleur, in his first season as a head coach, reshaped an entire football team while installing a brand new offense and still won 13 games. That’s an achievement all on its own. But Barnwell’s method for predicting regressors is strong. It’s rooted in both past data and a high hit percentage. The Packers have their work cut out for them in terms of repeating last year’s magic. In most cases, luck evens out and outliers like the 2019 Packers regress to the mean the following year.
How can the Packers avoid a major regression?
On offense, the passing game must get more explosive and more consistent, and the Packers must get better on third down. There’s a chance all three could happen in Year 2 of LaFleur’s offense, although the Packers will need more efficiency and accuracy from Aaron Rodgers and big jumps from the young players at the wide receiver and tight end positions.
The defense has a chance to jump into the elite tier, especially against the pass. This team is loaded with pass rushers, and the secondary is young, athletic and talented. There are holes, especially along the defensive line and at linebacker, but Mike Pettine’s defense should be very good against the pass in 2020. Any team that can defend and disrupt the passing game at a high rate has a chance to be elite.
The Packers had a point differential of plus-63 in 2019. Although this team isn’t notably improved in any one area, at least based on offseason additions to the roster, it wouldn’t be unreasonable or surprising for the Packers to improve in its point differential slightly while also losing more games.
More than likely, the Packers will lose a couple more close games in 2020, suffer a key injury or two and regress in the turnover department and within the red zone. And more than likely, this team will finish somewhere between 9-7 and 11-5.
Perception will almost certainly taint the result. Last year’s 13-3 finish set a standard this team probably can’t reach. But the Packers could still be good in 2020 without winning 13 games. The pull of regression is strong, but the Packers don’t have to sink under the weight of last year’s good fortune.