The No. 1 seed Arizona Wildcats (29-3, 18-2 in Pac-12) meet the No. 4 seed Colorado Buffaloes (21-10, 12-8) Friday in the semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament. Tip-off at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is set for 9 p.m. ET (PACN). Below, we look at the Colorado vs. Arizona odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Arizona edged the No. 9 seed Stanford Cardinal 84-80 in the Pac-12 quarterfinals, failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites. Wildcats sophomore PG Kerr Kriisa exited the game late with an ankle injury and is questionable to play against the Buffaloes.
Colorado thumped the No. 5 seed Oregon Ducks 80-69 Thursday, easily covering as 1-point favorites.
These teams split their regular-season series 1-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). The road team won and covered both and each game went Over the total.
See also: Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports
Colorado vs. Arizona odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:36 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Colorado +380 (bet $100 to win $380) | Arizona -540 (bet $540 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Colorado +9.5 (-105) | Arizona -9.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 149.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
[tipico]
Colorado vs. Arizona odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Colorado 78, Arizona 76
Money line
SPRINKLE on COLORADO (+380) with the plan of its spread harder because the Buffaloes have the best 3-point percentage and free-throw percentage in Pac-12 play, according to KenPom.com.
Also, Colorado probably needs to win the Pac-12 tournament to earn an NCAA Tournament bid whereas I wonder how big of a priority the conference tournament is for Arizona.
Again, I’d only SPRINKLE on COLORADO (+380), if at all, because the Buffaloes plus the points is a much sharper wager.
Against the spread
Definitely BET COLORADO +9.5 (-105) instead of or heavier than its money line.
Colorado has the second-best cover rate in conference play since the beginning of last season at 25-18-2 ATS with the best ATS margin at plus-2.1 so it consistently overperforms expectations versus Pac-12 foes.
Furthermore, Colorado is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games, 2-0 ATS when spotted 7.5-9.5 points and has been hit by a sharp line move. Arizona opened as a 10.5-point favorite, which aligns with college basketball guru Ken Pom’s projected spread, but has been steamed down to the current number.
I’d assume this is a sharp line move because Arizona is one of the best and most popular teams in the country so there won’t be a bunch of square money on Colorado.
COLORADO PLUS THE POINTS is my favorite wager in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 149.5 (-115) because both teams excel at getting to the charity stripe and hits down their free throws.
Also, this is a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market for the total as more money is on the Over but more bets have been placed on the Under., according to VegasInsider.com.
Typically, it’s profitable in sports betting to follow the money especially when it’s counter to the public. Plus oddsmakers are reacting to the money side of the market by lowering the total from the 148-point opener.
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