For everything Super Bowl 53 lacked in excitement, Super Bowl 54 should be able to make up for it.
The 49ers and Chiefs cruised through their two playoff games and will square off against each other Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. While the game should bring some offensive fireworks, it should also bust the door wide open for some NFL prop bets.
Sports wagering site Bet MGM has a slew of bets outside the traditional money lines and point spreads, and we dove into some of our favorites.
Bet: Will any offensive or defensive lineman score a touchdown?
Yes (+900)
This is great value! Consider all the ways a lineman could score a touchdown. An offensive lineman could line up as an eligible receiver. A defensive lineman could haul in a pick-6, or recover a fumble for a touchdown.
The offensive lineman one seems feasible in a game featuring two of the most creative offensive staffs in the NFL. It’s worth noting for the 49ers that the last first-round pick to catch a pass for them was left tackle Joe Staley last season.
On the defensive side, there are so many electric players on each of these defensive lines that a game-changing play like a strip sack or an interception on a screen is entirely reasonable. Both teams also run 4-3 defenses, which means maximum linemen on the field at all times. This would be well worth the +900 odds (bet $100 to win $900) just to have a fun, unorthodox thing to root for.
Bet: What will be the first offensive play of the game be?
Run (-162)
Pass (+125)
More great odds here. The nature of the two offenses dictates that any plus odds on a pass to start the game are probably worth snagging.
The Chiefs throw it A LOT. They threw it over 60 percent of the time in the regular season. Chances are they’ll throw it on first down against the 49ers because they don’t want to start the game with a run, not their strong suit, and get behind the sticks early.
Now, there might naturally be some worry about the 49ers coming out throwing since they attempted only 27 passes in their two playoff games, but head coach Kyle Shanahan is all about attacking weaknesses. The Chiefs are likely going to sell out to stop the run game that gashed the Vikings and Packers in the playoffs, and if they leave themselves susceptible to the pass, Shanahan will take advantage.
The +125 odds on a pass in a game where there’s liable to be a ton of passing feels like the right move.
Bet: Kyle Juszczyk over 12.5 receiving yards
Over 12.5 (-112)
Under 12.5 (-112)
The over here feels like a lock. Juszczyk, the 49ers’ do-everything fullback, is a matchup nightmare for a team that doesn’t have a ton of athleticism in the second level.
Given how little the 49ers threw in their last two games, a play where Juszczyk lines up in an ‘I’ formation then leaks out on a play action pass where he gets either forgotten about or matched up on a linebacker seems like it’s already in the opening game script. That’s an easy 15 yards for the 49ers and an easy cash-in for the over.
Some people may shy away from Juszcyzk over 12.5 since he’s averaging fewer than 20 yards and two catches per game, but it’s pretty rare that he’s unproductive when he is involved. In the eight games that he caught passes this year, Juszczyk only failed to eclipse 12 yards twice. He had one catch for 23 yards in Week 16, and one catch for 49 yards in Week 17. Juszczyk doesn’t have a target yet in the postseason, which means he’s due, and when he gets targets, he produces.
Bet: Patrick Mahomes over 400.5 passing yards
Over 400.5 (+600)
Under 400.5 (-1000)
This one is for people with no real rooting interest that just want to root for points. There’s a very realistic scenario where the 49ers and Chiefs get into a shootout and both run up north of 40 points. If Kansas City is doing that, that very likely means a big day for Mahomes. He’s already liable to drop back 45-plus times and sling the ball over the yard, even against a great defense.
Putting some cash on the +600 allows the bettor to just cheer for maximum offense and chaos. It’s worth noting Mahomes has gone over 400 yards just three times in his career, but twice this season. On the other hand, the 49ers had a historically great pass defense until the injury bug set in. That unit is healthier now and does a great job limiting big plays.
However, if someone wants a reason to cheer for a huge day from Mahomes, this is a way to do so at pretty good value.