The Oregon State Beavers (7-6, 1-1 Pac-12) visit the Oregon Ducks (7-6, 1-1) Saturday. Tip from Matthew Knight Arena is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Oregon State vs. Oregon odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Oregon lost to Utah Valley 77-72 at home Dec. 20, failing to cover as 12-point favorites. The Ducks were down 41-24 at home. That against-the-spread (ATS) loss pushed their season-long record to 7-6. They are 5-2 ATS over their last 7 games. Oregon ranks 67th in opponents’ field goal percentage (40.3%).
The Beavers, on the other hand, beat Denver 57-52 Dec. 21 but failed to cover as 7.5-point road underdogs. Oregon State is 6-6 ATS this season yet just 1-3 ATS over its last 4 games. The Under for the Beavers has hit in 6 straight games, partially due to their poor offense, which ranks 329th in points per game (65.3).
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Oregon State at Oregon odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Oregon State +625 (bet $100 to win $625) | Oregon -1100 (bet $1,100 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Oregon State +13.5 (-105) | Oregon -13.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 131.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Oregon State at Oregon picks and predictions
Prediction
Oregon 68, Oregon State 60
Moneyline
PASS.
There is a touch of value on Oregon State at (+625), especially considering Oregon is 6-3 at home and coming off a home loss as 12.5-point favorites. Ultimately, I would look to the spread for better value, though.
Against the spread
BET OREGON STATE +13.5 (-105).
It is difficult to trust Oregon in this spot, and the trends back up fading the Ducks. For starters, the Ducks have been double-figure favorites in 2 of their last 3 games and failed to cover both of those spreads. They also don’t have an elite scoring offense, ranking 240th in points per game (69.6) which could make it difficult to get 13 or more points of separation.
The Beavers, on the other hand, are 3-1 ATS when a double-digit underdog, having lost 63-62 as a 14-point underdog at USC and 54-51 as a 21.5-point underdog on a neutral court against Duke. They have held these games close, and I expect them to do the same here.
Back OREGON STATE +13.5 (-105).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 131.5 (-110).
The Beavers are 0-6 O/U in their last 6 and are 3-9 O/U this season. This is mainly due to their awful offense, which sits 305th in 3-point field goal percentage (31.2%) and 219th in field goal percentage (44%).
Couple that with Oregon’s inefficiencies on offense and the Beavers’ defense, which ranks 64th in opponents’ field goal percentage (40.1%), and the UNDER 131.5 (-110) is the better play on the total.
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