The Oregon Ducks accomplished many things on Saturday night with their 49-21 win over the Washington Huskies, one of which has only happened once in program history.
With the dominant win over the Huskies, Oregon completed an undefeated 12-0 regular season for just the second time ever, and the first time since 2010. It also gave Dan Lanning his first career win against Washington at long last.
Now Oregon will turn its attention forward to Indianapolis, where they will face the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday night.
This will be the first time that Oregon and Penn State have played each other since the 1995 Rose Bowl, and their first meeting as Big Ten Conference foes.
So as the only undefeated team in the nation, and the No. 1 team in the country, the Ducks should be favored to win this neutral site game, right? While the betting market may suggest that’s the case, ESPN’s Football Power Index doesn’t agree.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
In short, it looks at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicts what percentage the Ducks have to win each game, and make it into the postseason and beyond. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say following Week 14:
Oregon vs. Penn State — Week 15
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 49.0%
Oregon Ducks Overall Season Outlook
Percent Chance to Win Out: 49.1%
Previous Odds: 31.1%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 49.1%
(Penn State Conference Title Odds: 50.1%)
Previous Odds: 38.0%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 100.0%
Previous Odds: 99.8%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 21.8%
Previous Odds: 18.5%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 9.0%
Previous Odds: 7.5%
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