Oregon Ducks lead nation in College Football Playoff probability, per ESPN FPI
A look at the Oregon Ducks’ remaining win probability in every game of the 2024 season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
There are just two weeks between us and the end of the regular season in the college football world, and while Conference Championship games in Week 15 will decide what seeds teams get in the first expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, we will get a good sense of who should be playing in the postseason before then.
For instance, the Oregon Ducks not only virtually clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game with their 16-13 win over the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday night, but they also all but guaranteed a trip to the CFP as well, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
Going into Week 13 — a much-needed bye for the Ducks — Oregon has the best odds in the nation to make it to the playoffs, with a 99.6% chance, per the FPI. The next closest team is Indiana at 96.6%, followed by Ohio State at 94.6%.
Oregon Ducks — 99.6%
Indiana Hoosiers — 96.6%
Ohio State Buckeyes — 94.6%
Texas Longhorns — 93.7%
Georgia Bulldogs — 92.0%
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
In short, it looks at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicts what percentage the Ducks have to win each game, and make it into the postseason and beyond. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say following Week 12: