The coronavirus pandemic
This goes beyond the obvious. Yes, if the NFL season doesn’t happen, then Stidham won’t play in 2020. And there will presumably be some sort of draft in 2021 for the NFL. That could open up the competition again.
But there’s a less obvious reason why the pandemic could impact Stidham. If there is an NFL season, one that’s shortened to some degree, that could also get in Stidham’s way. Hoyer is the safer bet as an NFL starter, because he’s already been one. He’s got years in the Patriots system (2009-2011, 2017-2018), which means he can run it. It also means the Patriots have years of practice film they can use to work with Hoyer on how to tailor the system to him. That’s not true for Stidham, who spent a developmental year in New England in 2019. Bill Belichick probably has a more limited sense of how to build around Stidham.
If organized team activities, training camp and preseason come together in a limited (or nonexistent) capacity, then Stidham will be at a disadvantage in his competition against Hoyer. And there’s a real possibility that there will be limitations due to the pandemic, even if the NFL is suggesting everything is on schedule.
Even with the off possibility that the Patriots could sign Newton or that COVID-19 could circumstantially give Hoyer an advantage, Stidham still seems like the odds-on favorite to start in Week 1.
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