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It takes an unconventional mock draft to keep Joe Burrow away from the Cincinnati Bengals.
One such mock draft just popped up and has the Bengals taking Ohio State’s Chase Young instead of Burrow. The “analytics-based” mock works in data-driven models and aims to help the Bengals win as many games as possible in 2020.
With that context, here’s the explanation for the Young pick from NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund:
“Due to multiple positional areas of concern, my models suggest that the fastest way for the Bengals to improve their win total in 2020 is to leverage a rich quarterback market in free agency and take the highest-rated player in the draft. Conventional statistics show that the defense allowed 6.1 yards per play last season (tied for dead last) and forced just 16 takeaways (tied for third-fewest). In terms of pressure, Cincy logged 31 sacks (tied for 26th), and only two teams ranked worse in percentage of passing plays where a defender got within a 5-foot halo of an opposing quarterback, with a disruption rate of just 19 percent. In order for presumptive No. 1 pick Joe Burrow to add more wins than Young next season, the Bengals would have to significantly upgrade their O-line and address D-line woes, because a good defense is also a quarterback’s best friend.”
If the Bengals were trying to win as many games as possible in 2020, grabbing the instant impact of Young over a quarterback who needs time to adjust makes plenty of sense.
That’s doesn’t reflect what will really happen though. And the nice thing about the Bengals defense? It’s going into Year 2 of a complicated multiple scheme, cut out underperformers like Preston Brown and Bengals brass have made it clear they’re aiming to aggressively upgrade it in free agency and the draft.
Part of the plan to overhaul the defense (which could include cutting Dre Kirkpatrick) is likely aimed at doing so around taking Burrow.
If nothing else, the data here shows just how important it is for the Bengals to pull off a defensive overhaul while also taking Burrow at the top of the draft.
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