The expectation in 2024 is that Michigan football will take a step back after winning the national championship. It makes sense, given the schedule, the personnel losses, and the coaching change.
But how much of a step back do many expect Michigan to make?
The won-loss projection entering 2023 was set at 10.5, with the potential pratfalls coming against Penn State and Ohio State. This year, the Wolverines have Texas, USC, Washington, Oregon, and Ohio State on the schedule — all games where it wouldn’t exactly be a surprise if the maize and blue faltered.
On3’s Jesse Simonton looked at every Big Ten team’s win-loss over-under and with Michigan football being set at 9.5, he feels that’s about right for 2024.
Michigan: 9.5 — Just Right
The reigning national champs still have to decide on a quarterback between Alex Orji, senior walk-on Davis Warren and perhaps others, but Sherrone Moore deserves credit for keeping the bulk of the roster intact after the program’s transition from the Jim Harbaugh regime. Not only do the likes of Will Johnson, Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham — all future 1st Round picks — return, but Michigan did some nice work in the spring portal, especially addressing needs in the secondary.
Even with so many changes to the coaching staff and offensive depth chart, Michigan should still be able to physically dominate the majority of opponents on its schedule. However, it’s a slog of a slate that includes losable games against Texas, USC, Oregon and Ohio State. Winning double-digit games should be considered a real success for Moore in Year 1.
If the Wolverines do manage to have a quarterback who can at least perform at a Cade McNamara level — and he’ll need help from an unproven wide receiver corps — then the maize ane blue could exceed that number given how strong the defense should be. It helps that of the aforementioned difficult games, all but two are at home, as well. But if the offense sputters, then Michigan could find itself achieving below those won-loss totals.