After years of being Super-Bowl-or-bust under current Hall of Famer Brett Favre and future of Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers are entering a new era at quarterback with 2020 first-round pick and now first-year starter Jordan Love.
With something new at the game’s most important position should come new expectations. If nothing else, there is an exciting uncertainty to the 2023 season in Green Bay.
“I think one of the things that makes this year so exciting for many of our fans is that there is a lot of uncertainty, given how many young players we have in key positions,” Packers president Mark Murphy wrote recently. “Talking to a number of our players, though, they like the fact that the expectations for the team are low, and they want to prove people wrong.”
Expectations must be properly placed because following a legend at quarterback is hard. Often very hard.
This chart from Scott Kacsmar helps show, in visual form, the difficulty ahead for Love and the Packers:
The Packers certainly have a task ahead of them. Even Aaron Rodgers went 6-10 his first year replacing Favre.https://t.co/EYzUQOlvC4 pic.twitter.com/fQ0q2fjbHZ
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) August 7, 2023
Of the 22 teams listed, only three made the playoffs. Eleven of the teams, or half of the 22, won six or fewer games, including the 2008 Packers under Rodgers. There has been some recent success stories, including Geno Smith and the Seahawks last season. But even the last four teams to finish above .500 in a season following the departure of a great quarterback each only won nine total games, and only the 2022 Seahawks made the postseason.
For Packers fans, there is no shame in excitement for the 2023 team. New is fun. And this team will be new in so many important ways. It’s even fine to say the Packers are legitimate contenders in the NFC North because the division is so wide open entering this season.
But keeping expectations realistic is also warranted. In almost any scenario, finishing 9-8 in 2023 would be a terrific result for the Packers. Getting to the playoffs, even with nine wins, would be an incredible achievement. On the flip side, going 6-11 or 7-10 wouldn’t necessarily be a gigantic failure. The 2008 Packers team won only six games but the season wasn’t lost because Rodgers cemented himself as the answer long-term and a potentially special quarterback overall.
This is very much a “transition” year for the Packers. Love, despite sitting behind Rodgers for three years, must learn how to win as a starting quarterback. And his supporting cast, especially at wide receiver and tight end, is exceedingly young and must grow with him over time. The defense is talented but can’t be viewed, given the uneven results of at least the last two seasons, as a saving grace.
The Packers appear to have a mangeable schedule in a mediocre division within a mediocre conference. A winning season and a playoff appearance is entirely possible if things fall right and Love is good. A poor season is also possible if the Packers struggle early in the year and possibly late in games under a first-year quarterback.
Are the Packers going to win two or three games in 2023? Probably not. Are the Packers going to be playing in the Super Bowl in February? Probably not. The range of outcomes in Year 1 post-legend quarterback is vast, but a specific range of 6-to-9 wins feels perfectly reasonable for Matt LaFleur’s team this season.