Why Baylor Will Win The Allstate Sugar Bowl
Control.
The Bears have enough offensive pop to answer if and when Ole Miss starts going, but their job is to grind out the clock a bit. They have the running backs to do just that, and they have the defense that can attack well enough to get off the field.
The pressure is always coming from this group. Head coach Dave Aranda is a defensive coach by trade, and he and his staff have have a month to figure out how to get to Matt Corral and force him into mistakes.
Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders might have played a bit too hyped up in the Big 12 Championship, but the Baylor defense had a whole lot to do with a slew of big mistakes. The D generated four picks, making it a run of four straight games with multiple takeaways and five games in the last six.
Ole Miss doesn’t have a big turnover issue, but it has yet to see a penalty it didn’t seem willing to commit, the offense isn’t great on third downs, and time of possession means nothing.
Baylor has the right formula. It’s going to run for at least 200 yards on the Rebel defensive front, and it has the lines to hold up.
However, Baylor doesn’t have …
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Why Ole Miss Will Win The Allstate Sugar Bowl
Matt Corral.
It was a nice surprise for Ole Miss when he chose to come back for this game, and he should be the steady difference-maker who makes up for the team’s problems with a few huge drives.
He ran for close to 600 yards with 11 touchdowns, and he completed 68% of his passes with 20 touchdowns and just four picks. He’s not going to be fazed by the Baylor defense, and he’s not going to give up the turnovers.
It’s not like Baylor’s D can’t be worked.
TCU was able to go off for 562 yards in its win over the Bears, and six of the last eight opponents threw for 260 yards or more. Ole Miss won’t be able to get all that comfortable, but it’ll be explosive.
The Baylor offensive line is a bit leaky in pass protection, and Ole Miss – for all of its defensive issues – is able to get into the backfield.
The Rebels led the SEC in rushing, was fourth in the baton in total offense, and the points should come in bunches with 2 under center one last time.
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