The Iowa State Cyclones (4-2, 2-1 Big 12) host the undefeated No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-0, 3-0) for a conference battle Saturday. Kickoff at Jack Trice Stadium is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Oklahoma State upset a then-ranked Texas Longhorns 32-24 as a 3.5-point road underdog Oct. 16. The Cowboys have won and covered their first four Big 12 games after playing two non-Power 5 schools in one-score games at the beginning of the year.
Iowa State has won three of the last four games, all by double digits with the lone loss coming at the No. 20 Baylor Bears in Week 4. The Cyclones also lost to the No. 11 Iowa Hawkeyes and are 3-3 against the spread (ATS) with a 3-3 Over/Under (O/U) record.
Since hiring head coach Matt Campbell in 2016, the Cowboys are 4-1 overall but just 2-3 ATS vs. the Cyclones.
Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:13 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Oklahoma State +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Iowa State -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Oklahoma State +7.5 (-120) | Iowa State -7.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Oklahoma State at Iowa State odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa State 24, Oklahoma State 20
Money line
PASS with a slight “lean” to Oklahoma State (+205) because I only “lean” to the Cowboys plus points and “like” the total in this matchup.
However, four of Oklahoma State’s games have been decided by one score and the Cowboys are due for a loss in one of these coin-flip games.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to OKLAHOMA STATE +7.5 (-120) because there’s something strange about this line and I cannot figure out why Iowa State is this big of a favorite.
Oklahoma State has played a tougher schedule than Iowa State and beat a Baylor team (by 10 points) which upset the Cyclones 31-29 Sept. 25. Iowa State doesn’t have an impressive win on its resume whereas Oklahoma State just went into Austin and upset Texas.
This is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game with a slight majority of the money being on Iowa State, but 78% of the bets placed are on Oklahoma State, according to Pregame.com. The pro-Iowa State money has steamed this line up from the Cyclones laying 5.5 points on the opener to the current price.
Also, one of the squarest bets in college football is taking points with a ranked team visiting an unranked conference opponent. Oddsmakers have made loot for years because bettors overvalue ranked teams.
But, for me, it’s either OKLAHOMA STATE +7.5 (-120) or nothing.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 46.5 (-105) for 1 unit because both defenses are nasty and a vast majority of the market is backing the Over.
Oklahoma State’s defensive front ranks fifth in line yards allowed per snap and Iowa State’s ranks 30th. But Oklahoma State’s offensive line ranks 115th in line yards per snap and Iowa State’s is 71st.
On top of that, roughly three-fourths of the action is on the Over (according to Pregame.com), but this total opened at 50.5. That type of “reverse line movement” tells me that oddsmakers want more pro-Over wagers. Let’s fade the market and get on the same side as the House.
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