The No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1, 8-0 Big Ten) and No. 6 Michigan Wolverines (10-1, 7-1) meet for “The Game” Saturday at noon ET at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Below, we look at the Ohio State vs. Michigan odds and lines and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Ohio State routed Michigan State 56-7 last Saturday and has won nine straight games since losing to then-No. 11 Oregon Sept. 11. The nation’s top offense (total yards, points) has won seven of those nine by a margin of 21 points or more.
Freshman QB CJ Stroud went 32-for-35 for 432 yards and six touchdowns against the Spartans. Stroud has thrown four-or-more TD passes in six games this season, and he totes a completion percentage of 71.1% into Saturday’s game at UM.
The Wolverines have won three straight games since losing at Michigan State Oct. 30. Michigan scored 59 points in a win at Maryland Saturday and is in the top-25 nationally in scoring, total yards, and rushing yards.
A stingy Michigan defense that ranks seventh in scoring and ninth in total yards has yielded just one 400-yard game all season (Oct. 9 against Nebraska).
OSU is 15-1 vs. UM since 2004. Last year’s game was nixed due to COVID-19 protocols.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Ohio State at Michigan odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:03 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Ohio State -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Michigan +230 (bet $100 to win $230)
- Against the spread (ATS): Ohio State -7.5, -107 (bet $107 to win $100) | Michigan +7.5, -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 64.5, O: -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | U: -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
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Ohio State at Michigan odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Ohio State 38, Michigan 24
Money line
The Big Spreadsheet Industrial Complex has liked Michigan all season. Even games like the Wolverines’ loss to Michigan State have been underpinned by solid analytics on both sides of the ball.
Consequently, this price and the spread opened a couple clicks closer to the UM side than most expected, and there have been signs of big money plays on the Wolverines throughout the week.
But OHIO STATE (-300) is a fair play. The Buckeyes have an advantage in talent and most especially in depth. And those same spreadsheet models have noted an improving OSU defense over the second half of the season.
Against the spread
The Buckeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings with the Wolverines and 6-2 ATS across their last eight games at the Big House.
OSU’s ability to create havoc on defense is undervalued. On offense, a very good Buckeye line keeps Stroud upright and unbothered.
The Michigan defense is very good, but it is not a group tested by solid balance. When it was, against Michigan State, it was somewhat exposed.
If this game were to be played 10 times, it’s easy to see it as a one-score affair three or four times. But there is value on the other six-and-a-half times.
BACK THE BUCKEYES -7.5 (-107).
Over/Under
Respecting the public here: PASS.
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