Like every other team, the New Orleans Pelicans entered the season with optimism. A confident Lonzo Ball, a new head coach and a new roster provided plenty of ammunition for the buzz that surrounds a new season.
The Pelicans came out of the gates flying high, to their credit. In the opening game, they closed down the stretch for an impressive win against the Raptors on the road. Blowout losses to Miami and Phoenix could be overlooked as the team started 4-2.
But little has gone right since their second win of the season over Toronto on Jan. 2. The team has lost six of seven with a win over the Kings, who sport the worst defense in the league, the only reprieve.
The manner of the defeats made it particularly frustrating. An improbable loss to the Pacers, a last-second defeat to the Thunder, a collapse to the Hornets all came in a string as part of a five-game losing streak. And if winning solves everything, losing naturally has the opposite effect.
Fingers have been pointed as the Pelicans were blown out on Tuesday by Utah, dropping them to 5-8 on the year. Again, the nature of the loss led to questions as the Jazz buried 21 3-pointers to New Orleans’ six.
It highlighted a larger problem for the Pelicans this season. Through the first 13 games this season, New Orleans is 29th in 3-point percentage at 32.7%. If league average this season is in the neighborhood of the Suns, who are in 15th in the league in 3-point shooting, at 36.1%, then the Pelicans have one player – Eric Bledsoe – above that mark.
Ever a lightning rod for criticism, Lonzo Ball has drawn more than his fair share of the blame. Despite missing three games in the last two weeks, Ball was the subject of a piece on The Ringer on Wednesday discussing the ticking clock on his time in New Orleans. While it used clips from Tuesday’s game against the Jazz, his first game in 10 days, it spelled out many of the problems for Ball.
His reworked jumper has not yet produced the results it did last season, and, as a result, teams aren’t respecting his shooting. The Pelicans slowing to 26th in the league in pace also doesn’t help Ball, who excels in the open court. The needed adjustments that come over time with playing under a new head coach do not lend themselves to the reactionary nature of social media. And despite his 3-point shooting, Bledsoe still serves as the worst type of player to complement Ball in the backcourt.
All of those could easily serve as excuses for Ball, but at the end of the day, 28.2% shooting from 3 is never going to get it done. Ball has shown an improvement in finishng at the rim this year, but he has only taken 22 shots at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass.
Ball’s 3-point-or-bust playstyle, though, is the exact opposite problem the Pelicans have as a team. On top of being one of the worst teams in the league in shooting 3-pointers, the Pelicans also take them at one of the lowest rates in the league.
Brandon Ingram laid out part of the blueprint for the Pelicans’ offense to bounce back after Tuesday, noting the team needs to shoot more 3s. On top of that being a general good rule of thumb, the Pelicans are due for a progression to the mean from range.
Each of Ingram, Josh Hart, JJ Redick and Ball are shooting below their career average from 3-point territory, none more so than Redick. This season, Redick is shooting 31.4% from 3, over 10% lower than his career average of 41.5%. Those averages will normalize and the Pelicans’ offense will look a great deal better.
But that will not solve all their issues. The real question is how long New Orleans can feasibly start Ball and Bledsoe alongside one another, and, if one is dropped, which one moves to the bench. The two are remarkably similar players, both being streaky shooters from deep that excel defensively. Ball is eight years younger, another reminder of how early into his career he is.
Bledsoe could have a market as the trade deadline nears. For his faults, he’s still a veteran guard and an elite defender. The Pelicans also have any number of draft picks to offload in his deal as well, should it come to that point.
The questioning may grow louder with the emergence of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who could solve some of the scoring issues with the starting lineup. For a young team needing to figure things out, moving a veteran Bledsoe to the bench in favor of Alexander-Walker seems like a natural move.
None of this addresses one of the other elephants in the room: The frontcourt of Zion Williamson and Steven Adams. For all of his incredible ability, Williamson’s inability to play extended minutes at the center position defensively are a massive hindrance to the spacing of New Orleans’ offense.
This season in minutes without either Adams or Jaxson Hayes on the floor, Williamson has a 114.5 defensive rating. The offensive benefits have been limited in those minutes, too, though as his offensive rating is just 100.7 in those minutes.
There is another argument to take the lumps this season while having Williamson learn how to play at the five and hope it leads to long-term success. It would open up the court offensively and could benefit everyone on the floor.
Ultimately, for now, the solution may just simply be patience. As noted, even if they aren’t shooting many 3-pointers, multiple rotation players are due for a bounce back in the coming weeks. The team will also learn Stan Van Gundy’s system, and he will adjust to the players’ tendencies. It will be a give and take that will play out for the rest of the season.
Ball, though, does have a ticking clock. The optimism of the preseason can still blossom into something of a breakout this season. Last year, Ball’s breakout came after he returned from injury and featured him playing the best basketball of his career for a three-month stretch.
But optimism and excitement wane and the Pelicans will need to find both in the coming days and weeks.