The Miami Dolphins’ 2020 campaign has bounced back strong after a slow start and the team is beginning to look as thought they may be able to challenge for meaningful games in January this winter. What a development that would be for Miami, given that the team was 0-6 at this time last year and started the 2020 season out at 0-2 with divisional losses to both New England and Buffalo. But as the Dolphins’ expectations begin to shift and the goal of the postseason becomes more prominent, Miami must have answers for some of their offensive limitations.
Yes, Miami is scoring at a sufficient clip — their 26.7 points per game ranks 14th in the NFL. But the team’s ability to create explosive plays isn’t something that has been shown consistently through six games: and without it, Miami will have to play perfect game scripts against the NFL’s upper echelon teams.
It isn’t just that the team hasn’t created big plays. It is that the team isn’t currently constructed with a lot of athletes who can create them with consistency. DeVante Parker is a valued target who can high-point the football and dominate at the catch point. Even when he’s covered one on one, he’s open. Preston Williams offers the same upside with much more variance for success. He’s had a good last few weeks to get into the end zone, but a disproportionate amount of his targets fall incomplete.
The root of the issue was something we discussed over the summer: separation. Not many of the Dolphins receivers are springy, quick twitch route runners who can create a lot of separation at the catch point. The numbers through six games are eye-opening:
There are 130 NFL WRs/TEs that qualify for Next Gen Stats: 7 of them average less than 2.0 yards of separation per target. Three of those 7 are Miami Dolphins:
Preston Williams – 1.7 YPT (T-last)
DeVante Parker – 1.9 YPT (T-124th)
Mike Gesicki – 1.9 YPT (T-124th)— Kyle Crabbs (@GrindingTheTape) October 19, 2020
Each of Miami’s top three non-running backs in the passing game are averaging under two yards of separation per target — and this trio has logged nearly 100 targets on the season through six games. It is hard to run away from defenders when they’re constantly on your hip; hence why Miami’s receivers find extra room so hard to come by. How many yards has this trio logged after the catch? The numbers are also unsettling.
Gaskin is currently 11th in the NFL in YAC out of the backfield (RBs aren't included in NGS separation measure) with 189 yards.
Parker – 85 YAC (T-84th)
Gesicki – 77 YAC (102nd)
Williams – 26 YAC (234th)— Kyle Crabbs (@GrindingTheTape) October 19, 2020
Gesicki’s 77 yards are a bit misleading given that a vast majority of those yards came on a long catch and run versus San Francisco — a play that is Miami’s longest play from scrimmage this season: 70 yards. To further showcase the point, running backs Myles Gaskin (11th in the NFL) and Matt Breida (78 yards after the catch on 8 targets) are two of Miami’s top three YAC threats this season.
There’s not a lot Miami can do about it this season. But moving forward, keep these restrictions in the back of your mind as the Dolphins search for more explosiveness after the catch for this offense.