The Oakland Athletics and Houston Astros play Game 4 of their American League Division Series at Dodger Stadium Thursday. The first pitch is scheduled for 3:35 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Athletics-Astros Game 4 MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Houston leads 2-1.
Athletics vs. Astros: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Frankie Montas vs. RHP Zack Greinke
Montas: 3-5 with a 5.60 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 53 IP over 11 starts.
- 2020 postseason: 1-0 with 2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K and 0 BB. Montas’ outing was a relief appearance in Oakland’s Game 3 win in the American League Wild Card Series against the Chicago White Sox.
- 2020 vs. Astros (regular season): 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 14 K and 3 BB in 15 1/3 IP over 3 starts.
Greinke: 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9 in 67 IP across 12 starts.
- 2020 postseason: 0-0, 1 start (Game 1 of AL Wild Card Series vs. Minnesota Twins) with 4 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 K and 3 BB.
- 2020 vs. A’s (regular season): 1-1 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 17 K and 2 BB in 17 IP over 3 starts.
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Athletics vs. Astros: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Athletics
- 3B Matt Chapman (hip) out
Astros
- OF Yordan Alvarez (knee) out
- RP Roberto Osuna (elbow) out
Athletics vs. Astros: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Athletics 8, Astros 4
Money line (ML)
The Astros (-106) are trying to prove the naysayers wrong after being dragged all offseason for MLB’s sting of their sign-stealing operation. Houston’s core hitters, who’ve been integral in its recent success, have been raking in this series even without buzzers and trash cans. 2B Jose Altuve, OF George Springer, SS Carlos Correa and 3B Alex Bregman have all hit home runs and are all hitting at least .364 with a .462 OBP.
The Athletics (-106) have had an awesome season and beat Houston 7-3 in the regular-season series. Seven of those games were in Oakland and the Astros were a terrible road team this season but this isn’t a traditional home game for them either.
Furthermore, Greinke hasn’t been lights out against the Athletics this season. Don’t get me wrong, Montas hasn’t been fantastic either, but Oakland struggles to hit for average and Greinke has given up a hit an inning against the Athletics.
If the starting pitching matchup is a wash, I’ll take Oakland’s MLB-leading bullpen ERA over Houston’s bullpen that is missing numerous arms. BET ATHLETICS (-106) to extend the ALCS.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
I like Athletics-Astros to be a slugfest but I don’t think the Athletics’ -1.5 (+135) line is juicy enough. Also, I’d use a similar rationale for Oakland’s alternate run line. PASS ON THE RUN LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
I’d TAKE OVER 9.5 (-106) since Houston has hit the cover off the ball this series and Oakland can chase Greinke early.
Also, the Athletics have to be familiar with the Astros bullpen at this point so expect them to add some runs late.
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