The Oakland Athletics (85-71) meet AL West co-tenant the Seattle Mariners (86-70) Monday to begin a pivotal three-game set at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Athletics vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Oakland swept the Houston Astros in a three-game set this past weekend but is 3 games back of the Boston Red Sox for the second AL Wild Card berth and behind both Seattle and the Toronto Blue Jays in the playoff race.
Seattle has won seven of its past eight games, which includes a four-game sweep of the A’s last week, and is just 2 games back of the Red Sox for the second AL Wild Card seed.
Season series: Mariners 12-4.
LHP Cole Irvin is Oakland’s projected starter. Irvin is 10-14 with a 3.99 ERA (169 1/3 IP, 75 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 30 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-1, 5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB and 5 K Wednesday vs. the Mariners.
- Irvin is 0-4 in four starts this year against Seattle with a 7.56 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 29 H, 7 BB and 10 K.
- vs. Mariners on the current roster: 5.27 FIP with a .400 batting average (BA), .439 wOBA, .454 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 11.5 K% and 87.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 78 plate appearances (PA).
RHP Chris Flexen makes his 30th start for the Mariners. Flexen is 13-6 with a 3.56 ERA (169 1/3 IP, 67 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 4-1, Wednesday at the A’s with a stat line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 8 K.
- Flexen is 2-2 this year against Oakland with a 3.24 ERA (25 IP, 9 ER), 1.12 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB in four starts.
- vs. A’s on the current roster: 3.14 FIP with a .224 BA, .267 wOBA, .334 xSLG, 18.1 K% and 89.8 mph EV in 72 PA.
Athletics at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Athletics -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Mariners -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Athletics -1.5 (+155) | Mariners +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Mariners 4, Athletics 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the MARINERS (-117) for 1 unit because Seattle has a significant edge in the pitching department, is nine games above-.500 at home and eight games above-.500 vs. lefty starters.
Furthermore, Flexen’s basic stats and pitching peripherals vs. the A’s are far better than Irvin’s against the Mariners. Also, Seattle’s bullpen ranks ahead of Oakland’s in ERA and most advanced pitching metrics such as home run per nine-inning rate, K-BB%, xFIP and SIERA.
On top of that, the Mariners have owned the A’s this season and have a much better record against AL West teams.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a heavy “lean” to the Mariners +1.5 (-190) because they are 32-15 ATS as a home underdog and I’d listen to a case for adding Seattle’s run line in a parlay with another similarly priced side for a plus-money payout.
However, it’s a little of my price range for a straight-up wager even though the Mariners have a good return on investment in this spot.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for a half unit because the Athletics-Mariners meeting last week with these starters on the mound went Under the total, and the Under has cashed in seven of their past eight contests.
Also, both teams play more to the Under in their respective location-based O/U trends and there should be a playoff-like atmosphere in this game since both teams are in must-win scenarios.
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