The Oakland Athletics (56-44) wrap up their four-game series with the Seattle Mariners (53-46) Sunday at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Athletics vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Seattle beat Oakland Saturday 5-4 to take a 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4 as Mariners OF Mitch Haniger went 3-for-4 with two home runs, a double, three RBIs and was in the batter’s box when Seattle won on a walk-off wild pitch.
Season series: Mariners lead 5-4.
LHP Cole Irvin makes his 20th start for the A’s. Irvin is 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA (113 IP, 43 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 3 K vs. the Los Angeles Angels Monday.
- Irvin lost his first career start against Seattle earlier this season (May 25) with a stat line of 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 1 BB and 2 K in Oakland’s 4-3 defeat.
- 2021 road splits: 4-3 with a 2.85 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.12 WHIP and 4.6 K/BB rate in eight starts.
LHP Marco Gonzales is Seattle’s projected starter. Gonzales is 2-5 with a 5.69 ERA (61 2/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.49 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 across 12 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 6-4, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 3 K Tuesday at the Colorado Rockies.
- Gonzales got a no-decision in Seattle’s 12-6 loss to Oakland June 1 with 4 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
- vs. A’s on the current roster: 4.24 FIP with a .257 batting average, .322 wOBA, .445 expected slugging percentage, 19.9 K% and 89.4 mph exit velocity in 186 plate appearances.
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Athletics at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:58 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Athletics -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mariners +110 bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Athletics -1.5 (+120) | Mariners +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Mariners 5, Athletics 3
Money line (ML)
Slight “LEAN” to the MARINERS (+110) for a tiny wager because Seattle’s run line is my favorite side of this game. The Mariners have an edge in the pitching battle and the A’s lineup has struggled through the first eight games after the All-Star Break.
Irvin’s first start this season against the Mariners was his second-lowest graded outing (according to FanGraphs.com). While Gonzales pitched well vs. Oakland earlier this year, he only pitched four frames because it was his first start off of an injury.
Seattle’s bullpen is much better than Oakland’s. The Mariners’ relievers rank in the top 10 of K-BB%, SIERA and WAR, while the A’s relievers grade in the bottom 10 in each of those categories.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET 1 unit on the MARINERS +1.5 (-145) since all five of Seattle’s victories over Oakland this season have been by a single run.
It’d be wise to get a run-and-a-half cushion for what could be a close game. The Mariners have covered roughly 70% of their games as home underdogs this season (24-10 ATS).
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) as a “contrarian play” against a market that’s betting the Over at an 80% clip (according to Pregame.com) even though these teams are a combined 11-20 O/U with these starters on the mound.
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