The Oakland Athletics (56-42) continue their four-game series with the Seattle Mariners (51-46) Friday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Athletics vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Athletics lead 4-3.
RHP Frankie Montas takes the hill for Oakland. He is 8-8 with a 4.33 ERA (106 IP, 51 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 over 19 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 7 K Saturday against the Cleveland Indians.
- Montas lost to Seattle May 24 with 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 11 K in Oakland’s 4-2 home loss.
- vs. Mariners on the current roster (65 PA): 4.20 FIP with a .300 batting average (BA), .383 wOBA, .419 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 30.8 K% and 88.0 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Yusei Kikuchi is on the mound for the Mariners. He is 6-5 with a 3.92 ERA (103 1/3 IP, 45 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 over 17 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 9-4, with 5 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 1 BB and 7 K at the Los Angeles Angels Saturday.
- Kikuchi was the winning pitcher against Montas May 24 (4-2) with a stat line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Athletics on the current roster (97 PA): 4.92 FIP with a .239 BA, .302 wOBA, .346 xSLG, 19.6 K% and 92.6 mph EV.
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Athletics at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Athletics -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mariners -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Athletics -1.5 (+140) | Mariners +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Mariners 4, Athletics 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the MARINERS (-105) even though Seattle has by far the highest luck factor in the league because the Mariners continuously find ways to win games by coming through in high-leverage situations and Seattle has an edge in Friday’s pitching matchup.
The Mariners have been better this season against teams with a winning record and in the AL West than the A’s. Also, Montas typically wears down in the second half of the season.
For instance, Montas is 0-5 for his career after the All-Star break with a 4.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 2.3 K/BB rate, which are all worse than his first-half stats.
Lastly, Seattle’s bullpen has the second-best WAR and FIP, and the third-best home run per nine-inning rate.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since my Seattle money line wager is a “lean” and Mariners +1.5 (-170) is a little out of my price range.
However, there’s a case to be made for Seattle’s run line because the Mariners are 22-10 ATS as home underdogs this season and Oakland’s bullpen is weak. The A’s relief corps is a bottom-five unit in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) because the “sharps” are opposite the “public” in the betting market with the pros backing the Under. Oakland has played to the Under in five straight games, as well.
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