Numbers increasingly favor Palou as IndyCar title chase heads for Portland

NTT IndyCar Series championship leader Alex Palou was summarily beaten by Team Penske last weekend at World Wide Technology Raceway, who authored a 1-2 finish with Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin. And yet, in what’s becoming part of his legend, …

NTT IndyCar Series championship leader Alex Palou was summarily beaten by Team Penske last weekend at World Wide Technology Raceway, who authored a 1-2 finish with Josef Newgarden and Scott McLaughlin.

And yet, in what’s becoming part of his legend, the infinitely lucky Chip Ganassi Racing driver somehow managed to lose to the team’s scariest rival and extend his lead in the championship ahead of the fight that reconvenes on Sunday in Portland. In fact, the three drivers closest to Palou lost ground to him at WWTR, and they’re running out of chances to gain yardage. Simply put, less than a month remains in the season, and there’s no time left to gradually chip away at the leader.

Palou went into WWTR with 49 points over Penske’s Will Power and left with a 59-point cushion over Andretti Global’s Colton Herta, who’s risen to his strongest championship position since 2020 by motoring from fourth to second in the standings.

Palou’s Ganassi teammate Scott Dixon came and went from WWTR in third, but he’s seen his gap grow from 53 to 65 points.

And then there’s Power, who was close to making inroads on Palou at WWTR, but with the late restart crash, he swapped championship positions with Herta and sits fourth going into Portland, having descended from 49 to 66 points shy of the lead. The last of the realistic contenders for the title is Penske’s McLaughlin in fifth. He needs to find 73 points to draw even with Palou.

After McLaughlin, the odds begin to grow with Arrow McLaren’s Pato O’Ward in sixth (+98 points), Andretti’s Kyle Kirkwood (+121 points), Newgarden (+126 points), and those with no hope whatsoever like McLaren’s Alexander Rossi in ninth (+166 points) and Meyer Shank Racing’s Felix Rosenqvist in 10th (+194 points).

With four contests left (Portland, two races at Milwaukee, and Nashville), there’s a maximum of 216 points available to any driver if they execute four perfect race weekends (54 points x four). And with Palou owning a championship lead of 59 points — greater than one full race — the urgency for all of his rivals, and especially those from O’Ward on back, to reel in the Ganassi driver at Portland is significant.

And while it’s possible for this to happen, it would likely require Palou’s luck to run out; he’s won two out of the last three races at Portland and has more road racing wins this season (two) and poles (three) than any other driver. Of the four races waiting to be run, Portland is Palou’s best chance to pad his lead before venturing into Penske territory on three straight ovals to close the season.

Palou has been among IndyCar’s best on ovals over the last 12 months, and while he’s yet to score his first oval victory, the two-time champion has been close to the Penske trio — winners of every oval this season — with a fifth at the Indianapolis 500, a second at the second Iowa race, and fourth at WWTR.

If we assume the Penske oval juggernaut will continue, Palou has one race left to build a wall of points that can’t be scaled by Power, McLaughlin, and Newgarden. And if something silly happens with a crash or mechanical problems on Sunday, real championship drama could await the contenders the following weekend at the Milwaukee doubleheader.

As we saw at WWTR, Palou can also stretch his lead or have crucial points taken from his closest pursuers if one of the drivers with slim chances to take the title capture the win. If Palou can’t get it done at the BITNILE.com Grand Prix of Portland, he’d welcome someone like Kirkwood or Rossi coming home first and denying the main protagonists from filling up on points.

In the Rookie of the Year race, Linus Lundqvist’s run to third at WWTR and teammate Kyffin Simpson’s early crash took a 40-point advantage and has blown it out to 71.

Despite his WWTR disappointment, David Malukas still has Meyer Shank Racing No. 66 poised for a critical points finish. Perry Nelson/Motorsport Images

The stampede to make it into the top 22 in the entrants’ championship by the end of the season to earn one of Penske Entertainment’s 22 $1 million contracts is also going to be a central focus at WWTR.

The chase for one of Penske Entertainment’s 22 $1 million Leaders Circle contracts also continues at Portland. Using the entrants’ championship where the top 22 in the standings receive the guaranteed prize money for the following season, some movement was made at WWTR,

Of those who are currently on the safe side of the cutoff line, the No. 66 Meyer Shank Racing Honda is 19th with 154 points, despite the crash by David Malukas that left the car 21st at the finish. In 20th it’s the No. 30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Honda (151 points) which drew much closer to the No. 66.

Thanks to his career-best finish of ninth, Sting Ray Robb took the No. 41 AJ Foyt Racing Chevy from 22nd and being on the Leaders Circle bubble to 21st (144 points). He isn’t expected to make a lot more headway at Portland, but Robb’s quite good on ovals, and that could be impactful in getting the No. 41 farther away from the bubble.

In 22nd, it’s the No. 20 Ed Carpenter Racing Chevy, which fell behind the No. 41 after another frustrating race for Ed Carpenter (136 points). Thanks to a stout performance by Conor Daly, who overcame adversity on at least two occasions at WWTR, the No. 78 Juncos Hollinger Racing Chevy is within striking distance of the top 22 (133 points).

Last again among Leaders Circle contenders in 24th is the No. 51 Dale Coyne Racing Honda (120 points). Coyne’s No. 18 Honda is a distant 25th (101 points).