Why Notre Dame Will Win
– The lines. Infrastructure isn’t sexy, but it’s necessary. Notre Dame’s offensive line has been terrific all season. It doesn’t give up too many plays in the backfield, it’s been solid against the run, and it held its own in the first meeting.
The defensive line has been even better. It’s good enough at getting into the backfield, the tackles for loss come from all sides, and …
– The run defense is a brick wall, allowing fewer than 100 yards per arm. Syracuse was able to rip off 229 yards last week in what we’ll call an unfocused effort by the Fighting Irish. Before that, Notre Dame didn’t allow 100 yards on the ground over a six-game span, and that included the win over Clemson. Travis Etienne caught eight passes for 57 yards, but he only ran for 28 yards and a score.
– Grind, grind, grind. The Irish have a good enough pass defense to not get roasted too often by Trevor Lawrence and the Clemson passing game, and this time around they have to do a better job of controlling the clock. They lead the ACC in time of possession – keeping it for over 34 minutes per game – but it was almost dead even in the first meeting. The Irish have to make Clemson play at their pace.
– Championship Week Schedule & Predictions
Why Clemson Will Win
– Clemson was banged up in the first meeting. Yeah, yeah, yeah, excuses, excuses, and DJ Uiagalelei really was magnificent, and Clemson really did almost pull it off until late, but it was a dinged up defensive line the Irish went against, and Trevor Lawrence is the veteran who has been though enough wars to have possibly been able to navigate through that.
Notre Dame won – again, no excuses whatsoever. However, it took a slew of injuries, the home field, a big enough crowd to make running onto the field at the end a thing, and a nearly flawless performance by the Irish. That means …
– Don’t expect Notre Dame to connect on 10-of-19 third down tries again. That was it. That, along with being +2 in turnover margin, was everything.
Clemson is No. 1 in the ACC in third down defense, and while converting third downs is what the Irish do, that was the only time all year the Tigers allowed anyone to convert more than 40% of the time.
It was also only the third game all year that Clemson lost the turnover battle, it was only the second time it turned it over more than once, and it was the only time it turned it over three times. That’s a big deal because …
– Notre Dame doesn’t really pick off passes, and Clemson doesn’t really fumble. The Irish picked off three passes against Boston College and two against Florida State. They intercepted just three passes against everyone else, and the Clemson quarterbacks don’t throw enough picks to matter.
The three lost fumbles against the Irish were a total aberration. Clemson spread out five in the rest of the games. It was the only time in the last 18 games the program lost more than one fumble.