A few weeks back we looked at ESPN’s Football Power Index and what it called for the 2020 Notre Dame Fighting Irish. As you may recall, it wasn’t a huge fan of Notre Dame’s chances against the better teams they face in 2020 as they called for very little chance of beating any of Wisconsin, Clemson or USC.
As it sits right now, ESPN’s FPI has Notre Dame slated as having the 15th best chance at making the College Football Playoff in 2020. It doesn’t appear great to start but only gets worse when you see a few of the teams given better odds than Notre Dame.
Playing in what has become a joke of a conference besides themselves, Clemson is not at all surprising to see with an 81.1% chance to make the CFP. That betters even Ohio State who has the second best chances at 63.8%. Alabama is then just behind the Buckeyes at a 58.7% chance.
Then things fall off in terms of chances per team but get very bundled up as Wisconsin (33.5%), Georgia (25.7%), LSU (23.7%), Penn State (23.2%) and Oregon (22.4%) are all within 11.1% chances of each other in spots four through eight.
The next tier finds Oklahoma and the likes of Texas, Auburn, UCF and Florida all scrunched together with between 8.1 and 15.3% chances at a playoff berth.
Finally you get to the level Notre Dame is seen at next as USC has a slightly better chance than the Irish as the Trojans are given a 4.9 chance at earning their first ever playoff berth. Notre Dame has the fifteenth best chances at just 3.1% while Texas A&M (2.5%) and Oklahoma State (1.1%) are the only other schools that are given a better than one-percent chance at making the 2020 College Football Playoff.
Do I buy into what it predicts for Notre Dame? I think what we know is just how high the system is on both Clemson and Wisconsin more than anything. Despite losing talent to the NFL both are still loaded while Notre Dame enters with clearly more questions at more spots.
How does Notre Dame’s offensive line develop in the run game? Can Ian Book take a step from being good to being somewhere near great? And what are we going to see from Notre Dame’s defensive front and secondary aside from star in the making, Kyle Hamilton?
I don’t love Notre Dame’s chances at the CFP as we sit here today but I also know nothing more now about a few of those questions than I did before the Irish saw spring practice canceled.
My greatest takeaway here is what we already know, that being how great the divide between the truly great college teams and the very good but far from great ones is. I know schedules speak to some of it but this index shares that common belief.