The first-world problem with winning the Super Bowl is that the rest of the league has already turned the page and is ready to get next season underway. There’s no better example of that than the annual tradition of releasing the first future bet of every NFL season: Super Bowl odds.
The Dallas Cowboys are a tricky team to pin down in these rankings. For starters, they are what’s known as a public team, which essentially boils down to being so popular that their odds are usually skewed due to casual bettors being willing to funnel money into the pockets of odds-makers year after year.
This year, the Cowboys begin their quest for that elusive sixth title in a tie for the 10th best odds league wide at +2000. Because they’ve gone 24 straight seasons without taking home another Lombardi it’s obvious that these odds have never been kind to Dallas fans. But how has the team performed based off of pre-season expectations? Below is a handy chart detailing exactly that:
| Year | Super Bowl Odds | Over/Under | Record | Playoffs |
| 2020 | +2000 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | +2000 | 9.0 | 8-8 | N |
| 2018 | +3000 | 8.5 | 10-6 | Y |
| 2017 | +1200 | 9.5 | 9-7 | N |
| 2016 | +2500 | 8.5 | 13-3 | Y |
| 2015 | +1400 | 9.5 | 4-12 | N |
| 2014 | +7500 | 8.0 | 12-4 | Y |
| 2013 | +2800 | 8.5 | 8-8 | N |
| 2012 | +2200 | 8.5 | 8-8 | N |
| 2011 | +2000 | 9.0 | 8-8 | N |
| 2010 | +1000 | 10.0 | 6-10 | N |
| 2009 | +1600 | 9.0 | 11-5 | Y |
| 2008 | +600 | 10.5 | 9-7 | N |
| 2007 | +2000 | 9.0 | 13-3 | Y |
The Cowboys have found more success in seasons where the doubters were out in droves. In the past 13 seasons, they’ve managed to scrape together only five playoff seasons and four of them came when their odds to win the championship was +2000 or worse. In fact, the three most disappointing campaigns all came on the heels of previous seasons in which the Cowboys flashed the potential to win it all.
The 2007 version of the Cowboys caught the league off guard. They had just replaced retired head coach Bill Parcells with Wade Phillips, and the offense ran roughshod over the league. The year ended (as it does) in disappointing fashion to the New York Giants after a well-deserved bye week. They entered the 2008 campaign at just +600, better odds than the current Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs currently have, only to sputter to a 9-7 record, losing three of the last four games (including a play-in game against the Philadelphia Eagles) to miss out on the tournament.
Odds-makers had soured on them the following year, with the odds to win the Super Bowl nearly tripling to +1600, but the team was able to hit double digit wins and make the playoffs. 2014, 2016 and 2018 are the years in which the Cowboys belied the lack of belief in their team. All three years they entered with odds of +2500 or worse before racking up double digit wins, a divisional title and a trip to the playoffs.
What does this all mean? Nothing really. But the worriers should take a modicum of solace in the +2000 heading into 2020. It’s too early for the over/under to be released for the team’s win totals, but this team has a history of disappointing when favored and surprising the league when full-blown doubt takes root.
Dallas is theoretically tied with two other teams for sixth-best NFC team, virtually the final wild-card playoff berth. That could definitely be seen as a long shot waiting for them to fire out the cylinder.
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