Why North Dakota State Will Win The FCS National Championship
You mean besides winning the FCS National Championship for the last bazillion out of bazillion+2 years?
It’s not like the South Dakota State offense totally dominated in the first meeting. The defense took over in the second half, but it was a close fight after the Bison got up fast. Yes, the Jackrabbits have a killer D – the second best in the nation after Jackson State’s D, and that got ripped up in the Celebration Bowl – but North Dakota State can hold up just fine.
There’s enough of a pass rush to matter, the turnovers come in bunches, and the secondary is should come up with its share of stops. For all the great things SDSU QB Mark Granowski does – and he did pull of the win – he was held to 152 yards and just two rushing yards in the first meeting.
That’s why it’s the Bison offensive front that has to win this.
North Dakota State was held to a season-low 127 yards in the first meeting, but it also didn’t run enough. It was relatively effective when it was able to pound, but it only ran 27 times – somewhere around the 40s in the norm. What the Jackrabbits did do was control the clock in the second half.
The North Dakota State offensive line has to pave the way for at least 200 yards, it has to keep the clock moving, and the O needs the ball for more than ten minutes in the second half this time around.
But …
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Why South Dakota State Will Win The FCS National Championship
Almost no one is running on the South Dakota State defense.
Holy Cross was able to get the offense going late in the season in a 42-21 Jackrabbit win, but that was it. The Crusaders got to 261 rushing yards in the loss, but the 127 put up by North Dakota State were the second-most.
Iowa couldn’t get to 60 yards. Montana State was stuffed. Indiana State was the only other team to run for over 100 yards, and it got whacked by 42.
North Dakota State can’t count on the running game working any better than it did the first time around. The O line was good, the pass protection fantastic, and it still didn’t matter – the Jackrabbit offense was able to take over the game and control the tempo because the defense kept getting off the field.
South Dakota State will get even more out of the pass rush this time around, and the offense should still be able to keep the chains moving.
Yes, the Bison defense is great, and no, it won’t get gouged. But South Dakota State will be able to run a bit and should do a bit more controlling the clock.
That, and …
– FCS National Championship Prediction, What’s Going To Happen, History