The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-1, 4-1 ACC) and Virginia Cavaliers (1-4, 1-4 ACC) put their inverse records on the line in a Saturday night (8 p.m. ET) ACC showdown at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va. We analyze the North Carolina-Virginia college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
North Carolina is ranked No. 13 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
North Carolina at Virginia: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: North Carolina -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Virginia +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
- Against the spread/ATS: North Carolina -6.5 (-121) | Virginia +6.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 61.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
North Carolina at Virginia: Three things to know
- North Carolina is coming off a nice bounce-back win (vs. N.C. State) after a disappointing loss to Florida State the week before. On the year, UNC has averaged 9.5 yards per pass attempt (10th FBS) and 5.7 yards per carry (eighth) on the ground. Running backs Michael Carter (7.9 YPC) and Javonte Williams (6.9) have both averaged over 100 rushing yards per game.
- The Cavaliers are also coming off a solid bounce-back. Virginia was routed by Wake Forest two weeks ago, but the Wahoos rallied to post a solid showing (and an easy against-the-spread win) in a 19-14 loss to Miami (Fla.) last week. Against the Hurricanes, the Virginia defense was solid, especially in the red zone, after having coughed up 119 points over the team’s three previous games.
- The Tar Heels lost last year’s game, 38-31, and have lost three straight in their series with the Cavaliers. Last year’s loss came despite then-freshman QB Sam Howell throwing four TD passes as part of a 353-yard passing performance. This year’s game pits Howell (280.6 passing yards per game) against the ACC’s worst pass defense (286.0 yards allowed per game).
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North Carolina at Virginia: Odds, prediction, betting lines and picks
Prediction
North Carolina 28, Virginia 24
Money line (ML)
North Carolina has a more solid recruiting base and a much better offense. THE TAR HEELS ARE A DECENT PLAY AT -250 but consider a line watch here. The Tar Heels are a really solid value play in the -230 to -240 range.
Against the spread (ATS)
North Carolina is 2-3 ATS over its last five road games. Virginia is 3-2 ATS over its last five at home; the Cavs are 16-5 in their last 21 games as a home dog. STEERING CLEAR OF A GAME with a likable Under on the total.
Over/Under (O/U)
Both defenses figure as better than what is shown by average-to-below average surface numbers. The Under is 8-3 over Virginia’s last 11 as a home dog, and the low side of totals has played to significant bounce in games after North Carolina scores 40 points or more the prior game (Under is 8-2 the next time out). The Under is 10-4-1 over the last 15 editions of “The South’s Oldest Rivalry.” BACK THE UNDER AS A STRONG PLAY in meeting No. 115 between the Heels and Wahoos.
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