Nikola Jokic has gotten a lot better at defense, and that should terrify the rest of the NBA

Jokic, without a doubt, is not the same defender that he was when he first came into the league.

As one of the most unique talents in the game, Nikola Jokic is the NBA’s reigning MVP due to his dazzling skillset on offense. However, his defense was always more of a concern.

Some even worried that Denver could not become a contender if Jokic was the centerpiece of its defensive attack moving forward. Nuggets head coach Michael Malone called Jokic an “easy mark” because he’s not that “shot-blocking athletic guy” who makes defensive plays at the rim.

Malone is right in that, unlike other centers, Jokic is not a dominant rim protector. Jokic’s block percentage ranks in just the 36th percentile among players at his position, per Cleaning the Glass.

Malone, however, also added that Jokic is the anchor of Denver’s defense. Presumably with the added confidence of his coach behind him, the big man has shown the ability to step up and make a difference as a defensive playmaker when it matters.

When the Nuggets defeated the Golden State Warriors on Dec. 28, the play that sealed the game was actually a block from Jokic. It wasn’t the first time that has happened this season!

Moments like that remind us that Jokic has come a long way in just a short period of time. As recently as September 2020, while appearing on TNT’s Inside the NBA, Golden State star Draymond Green was very critical of Jokic’s defense.

But here is what Green recently said about how Jokic took the feedback (via NBC Sports):

“He came up to me that following year and said something along the lines of ‘I saw what you said about my defense, you were right’ or ‘I appreciate it’ and he said ‘I’ve gotten better’, I said ‘you’ve 100-percent gotten better, I’ve been watching you this year, and you’ve 100-percent gotten better.'”

Jokic, indeed, has gotten better, but it’s not the counting stats, like blocks, that make him stand out. For him, it’s the on-off metrics that illustrate his value.

Opponents have an effective field goal percentage that is 6.1 points worse when Jokic is playing than when he is not. According to Cleaning The Glass, that currently ranks in the 97th percentile.

Specifically, the Nuggets are shooting 8.2 percentage points worse on short, midrange shots when he is on the floor (40.5 percent) compared with when he is off (48.7 percent) so far this season.

Not only are opponents missing those shots more often, but when Jokic is active, the Nuggets actually do a much better job limiting opposing offensive rebounds and instead grab defensive boards on missed shots.

Jokic is currently recording a career-best 17.3 defensive rebounds per 100 possessions. That shatters his previous personal-best mark, which was 12.7 defensive rebounds per 100 in 2018-19. He has actually grabbed rebounds on 31.6 percent of all opponents’ missed field goals, which trails just Rudy Gobert for the best mark in the league thus far.

Let that sink in: Jokic won the MVP award last season, and this year, he is recording an additional 5.8 defensive rebounds per 100 possessions.

As a whole, Denver is allowing 105.5 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the floor, per PBPStats. However, that number increases to a whopping 116.2 points per 100 when he is not.

The Ringer’s Zach Kram wrote a very thoughtful piece earlier this year, explaining exactly how hard it is to specifically quantify Jokic’s defense. Essentially, different statistics provide drastically different conclusions.

So what happens when you go directly to the source? If you ask him, he’ll candidly and humbly tell you he’s just decent. Via The Denver Post:

“I think I’m in the middle [of the league] … I’m not a great defender, I’m not the worst defender. … I can make a couple stops, sometimes I can’t. Depends, I think I’m right there in the middle. I’m just trying to get better to be really good in both ends of the court.”

But evaluators at FiveThirtyEight.com offer a much more generous reading of his individual defensive performance. Using their all-in-one advanced metric, RAPTOR, you can take a look at how he stacks up relative to the rest of the NBA below:

(via FiveThirtyEight)

According to their catch-all measurement, Jokic falls in his own tier of elite productivity on both offense and defense. Shockingly, Jokic somehow grades out as the best defensive player in the league.

Wait…what?! Let’s take a step back.

The Serbian superstar has undoubtedly made some significant strides on the defensive end of the floor. Last month, Nekias Duncan did a great job contextualizing exactly where Jokic has stepped up. Via Basketball News:

“What’s been interesting to watch is Jokic’s growing comfort in drop coverage. His vertical limitations persist, but he’s playing the gap with more purpose. There’s a little more activity, stronger contests. He’s flipping his hips a little better, allowing him to track ball-handlers in a smoother fashion.”

As we can tell when tracking his progress throughout his career from other advanced stats, the numbers definitely suggest Jokic is better at defense now than he was even when he won the league’s MVP last season.

You can even see a visualization of his progress on the defensive end of the floor below, charting Estimated Defensive Plus-Minus (eDPM) — which is considered a more trustworthy all-in-one impact metric than RAPTOR:

(via dunksandthrees.com)

The evaluation from RAPTOR doesn’t exactly pass the eye test while they are more modest, EPM is probably a more accurate grade considering we can all agree that the big man is far from the best defensive player in the league.

Perhaps we can make a more appropriate comparison using DARKO’s Defensive Daily Plus-Minus, which is widely regarded as the most reliable measurement.

I took a look at two other big men who have played a similar amount of games as Jokic has played and are also high-volume guys on offense, Julius Randle and Karl-Anthony Towns:

(via DARKO)

Although all three started their careers grading out as mediocre to poor defenders, Jokic quickly pulled ahead, and he has since managed to hold a steady lead as the most impactful of that trio on defense.

Jokic, without a doubt, is not the same defender that he was when he first came into the league.

Although the big man was a negative impact player on defense against the Clippers in the bubble, if you talk to coach Malone now, he’ll tell you that the big man is much better these days. Via The Denver Post:

“The thing that jumps out to me, and I’m gonna say this, and people not in Denver, but people around the NBA will scoff at it, he’s a very effective defensive player. You can’t say he’s not. All the other analytics they use for other players, when you apply those same analytics to Nikola Jokic, he should be an All-Defensive player.”

Maybe he’s not the Defensive Player of the Year. But is he going to earn NBA All-Defense honors? I’d still say likely not with Gobert, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, Myles Turner, Jarred Vanderbilt, Isaiah Hartenstein and maybe even Giannis Antetokounmpo all vying for the frontcourt spots.

Still, Jokic is not your typical All-Defense candidate, which is the type of player who will strike fear in the hearts of opponents when they’re matched up with him.

He is still not the kind of defender who tends to lock down his man on one-on-one opportunities in isolation. Although he has gotten better, he still often gets exposed during ball screens when the screener lifts to the perimeter and converts an easy pick and pop.

However, he’s now very much a net positive on defense. For the Nuggets to have him at least provide that much will make them a serious threat to win a title once their team is fully healthy with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter in the mix again.

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