Small sample sizes are tough to wrap ones head around. On one hand, the NFL regular season is just 17 weeks long. Three weeks are almost 20% of the season. On the other hand, it’s just three weeks. Still, if one can’t take stock entering Week 4 than what’s the point of a stock report?
When looking around the NFL landscape of quarterbacks, probably the hardest single position to play in all of professional team sports, the pay isn’t matching up to the performance in the early going of the 2024 season. At least when it comes to the top third of highest-paid quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen’s teams are a combined 6-0 on the young season. However, they both sit outside the top 12. The quarterbacks who have all signed in the wake of the mammoth deals signed in Kansas City and Buffalo respectfully are off to a rough start.
From Dallas QB Dak Prescott, who inked a $60 million extension right before the season began, to Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins and his $45 million a year pact, the teams of the top 12 highest-paid quarterbacks have a lowly 12-21 combined record through three weeks.
Limit the scope to the top-five highest paid and it’s even worse. Prescott, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, Green Bay’s Jordan Love, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa are a combined 2-10 when starting.
| Quarterback | Team | Record as Starter | Average Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | 1-2 | $60 million |
| Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | 0-3 | $55 million |
| Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | 0-1 | $55 million |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0-3 | $55 million |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Miami Dolphins | 1-1 | $53.1 million |
| Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | 2-1 | $53 million |
| Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | 2-1 | $52.5 million |
| Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | 1-2 | $52 million |
| Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | 2-1 | $51 million |
| Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals | 1-2 | $46.1 million |
| Dehaun Watson | Cleveland Browns | 1-2 | $46 million |
| Kirk Cousins | Atlanta Falcons | 1-2 | $45 million |
For now, this is just an interesting stat.
QB salaries aren’t tiered in order of who is the best at any given moment. It’s a cyclical representation of whether or not a team believes a QB is good enough to steward a trip to a championship.
Quality QBs are so rare, that just the potential to be that guy for a franchise will put him atop the totem pole when his contract is renegotiated. The stark reality of the NFL for the last 25 years is that its very rare for any quarterback to ascend to that status. Between Mahomes and the recently retired Tom Brady, there’s been a Boys Club for Lombardi hoisters. Those two have combined for 10 Super Bowl wins; in that span only 10 other QBs have won championships in that quarter of a century.
If a team wants to play hardball instead of ponying up the cash, they either have to use the franchise tag, which will pay the QB the average of the top five salaries, or see another team give the QB the contract they wouldn’t.
For now, again, these teams aren’t seeing the wins one would hope are associated with such an expensive investment. There’s still 14 more games to go, though, so a check-in later in the season is absolutely warranted.