Wide receiver Justin Jefferson has an opportunity to take the spot Stefon Diggs once had, stepping into a big role in his rookie year.
I think it’s fine if that doesn’t happen. However, it’s safe to say that Jefferson will at least be a pretty big target, barring injuries or anything else unexpected.
NFL.com recently included Jefferson in a list where the outlet projected the most productive rookie wide receivers. Cynthia Frelund, an NFL Network Analytics Expert, thinks Jefferson projects as the fourth-most productive first-year wideout.
Here’s what she said about the choice:
“Another player with a safer floor and a lot of upside is wide receiver No. 45 in my rankings. At LSU, Jefferson’s slot production was a huge driver of his success — along with the team’s. In 2019, his numbers in the slot ranked among the best in FBS on PFF’s tracking charts going back to 2014: He had 109 receptions (second-most in a single season in that span), 18 touchdowns (the most) and 1,518 yards (second-most). One of the things slot receptions help illustrate well is what a receiver can do when they don’t have the benefit of space. Jefferson caught 12 of 13 contested targets last season, or 92.3 percent, the highest rate among WRs in FBS, per PFF. But don’t be mistaken — Jefferson’s computer vision route-running tracking shows he’s more than just a slot guy. (I have written a lot about Jefferson, if you want to see more.) Once we get a better sense of how the Vikings’ offense shifts without the traded-away Stefon Diggs, Jefferson’s projection could go up … a lot.”
I’m kind of surprised Jefferson is that low, considering the Colts’ Michael Pittman Jr. and the Raiders’ Henry Ruggs III are ahead of him.
Granted, Ruggs III might have a bigger role at wide receiver than Jefferson will, but both of those two have inconsistent quarterbacks on their teams. I could see Jefferson doing better because Kirk Cousins is likely to be a better passer in 2020 than Philip Rivers and Derek Carr.