NFL Week 14 Power Rankings: Air is thin at the top of the NFL mountain

As we round into the final four weeks of the 2019 NFL regular season, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar ranks all 32 teams — especially the top.

8. Green Bay Packers

(Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

(9-3. Last week: 5)

After the Packers were undone in Week 12 by the 49ers in a 37-8 embarrassment, facing the Giants’ defense had to be a severe relief for Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Green Bay offense. It sure looked like that on the field, as Rodgers looked like the ideal version of himself against a secondary that didn’t seem to know which coverage to use or who should be covering whom. Rodgers tore that defense apart for four touchdown passes, and Mike Pettine’s opportunistic defense picked Giants quarterback Daniel Jones off three times. The extent to which Green Bay folded under the intense heat of San Francisco’s defense makes this team an uncertain entity even if it does win the NFC North, but it was reassuring to see Rodgers dissect a defense with ease.

7. Buffalo Bills

(AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

(9-3. Last week: 9)

It is now officially time to stop ignoring the Bills as the products of an easy schedule — when you have a 9-3 record, you have done enough right to be taken seriously. Yes, Buffalo had by far the NFL’s worst slate of opponents coming into their Thanksgiving matchup in Dallas, but going out of Big D with a 26-15 win that was far more dominant than the score might indicate? That was the very definition of a statement win.

Josh Allen completed 79% of his passes for 231 yards and a touchdown. John Brown, perhaps the NFL’s most underrated receiver, threw a 28-yard touchdown pass to running back Devin Singletary. Allen added 43 rushing yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. And a defense that has flown under the radar most of the season sacked Dak Prescott four times, limited him to two touchdown passes on 49 attempts, and racked up nine passes defensed and three forced fumbles.

Now, it comes time for Buffalo to prove it on a different level — with games against the Ravens, Steelers, Patriots and Jets in the next four weeks, Sean McDermott’s team faces the toughest remaining slate. That’s skewed to a large degree by the Ravens and Patriots, but the point still stands. There’s a lot more to prove here, but this is a team capable of proving it.

6. Houston Texans

(AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

(8-4. Last week: 9)

Before Sunday night, the Patriots had given up four passing touchdowns all season. Against the Texans in a 28-22 loss that pushed New England out of the AFC’s top seed, the Texans matched that total. Deshaun Watson threw three of those touchdowns, completing 18 of 25 passes for 234 yards — and he also caught a touchdown pass on this reverse option flip from receiver DeAndre Hopkins:

Yes, Houston’s offense was humming against the Patriots’ generally outstanding pass defense, but what makes the Texans an interesting playoff contender is a defense that is trending upward, especially a secondary that is finding success with first-round castoffs from other teams, such as Bradley Roby and Vernon Hargreaves. Add the possibility that J.J. Watt could return from a torn pectoral muscle in time for the postseason, and Bill O’Brien’s squad is in a pretty good place.

5. New England Patriots

(Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)

(10-2. Last week: 3)

There’s a point late in NFL Films’ epic two-part “A Football Life” episode on Bill Belichick, in which Belichick and Tom Brady are standing on the sideline in 2009, stating flatly that this team just doesn’t have it this season. That Patriots team finished 10-6, and were eviscerated in the wild-card round of the playoffs by the Ravens, 33-14.

It’s easy to imagine that conversation happening on the sideline this season. We all know how foolish it is to write this team off at any time — after all, the 2018 Patriots lost to the Dolphins and Steelers in Weeks 14 and 15 before redefining themselves as a power-running team and bullying their way to another Lombardi Trophy. It’s always possible that Belichick’s crew could turn it around again.

That said, after Sunday night’s 28-22 loss to the Texans, it’s just as easy to say that this team … well, just doesn’t have it. Belichick and Brady were talking about the team’s coachability back then, which doesn’t seem to be the problem now. Now, the problem is simply a lack of offensive talent, and a defense that has been historically great through most of the season finally broke against a superior offense. New England had allowed four passing touchdowns before Sunday night; they allowed four against the Texans, including an amazing option play in which DeAndre Hopkins pitched the ball to Deshaun Watson.

Watson completed 18 of 25 passes for 234 yards and three touchdowns, often riddling a New England defense that’s not used to such things. Meanwhile, Tom Brady completed 24 of 47 passes for 326 yards, three touchdowns and one pick, with two of those touchdown passes coming in the fourth quarter. But Brady also just missed having a completion rate under 50% in two consecutive games for the first time in his career.

Maybe the Patriots will find their way, as they generally seem to do. But right now? This Patriots team just doesn’t have it.

4. San Francisco 49ers

(Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)

(10-2. Last week: 2)

The 49ers came up short in a 20-17 loss to the Ravens in a game that represented a missed opportunity for San Francisco to set itself apart in the NFC. But Jimmy Garoppolo did separate himself in one category that had bedeviled him through the 2019 season — performance against the blitz. Coming into this game, Garoppolo had completed 81 of 124 passes for 922 yards, eight touchdowns and seven interceptions when blitzed. Against a Baltimore defense that ranked first in blitz percentage (50.7%) and dialed it up even more against him, Garoppolo kept things in check. The Ravens blitzed Garoppolo on 21 of his 25 of his dropbacks, and he responded with 12 completions in 18 attempts for 149 yards and a touchdown pass. That’s a small consolation for a team that could wind up as low as the fifth seed in the NFC, but having your quarterback break the spell against heavy pressure is a good thing. The consistency of this positive trend will be heavily tested next Sunday when the 49ers face a Saints defense that sacked Matt Ryan nine times on Thanksgiving.

3. New Orleans Saints

(Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)

(10-2. Last week: 5)

It says a lot for a team’s balance when it can beat the daylights out of an opponent without any of its biggest offensive names putting up huge performances. That was the case for the Saints in their 26-18 win over the Falcons. Drew Brees completed just 18 of 30 passes for 184 yards and a touchdown. Alvin Kamara gained 61 yards on 11 carries. Michael Thomas caught six passes for just 48 yards.

None of that mattered, though, because New Orleans’ defense went nuts on Matt Ryan, sacking him nine times, hitting him 13 more times, and making his day even worse with this extremely ill-advised tackle attempt and against defensive lineman Shy Tuttle.

Backup quarterback/Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill blocked a punt, ran for a touchdown and caught a touchdown pass. Cameron Jordan had four sacks, and edge bookend Marcus Davenport had two of his own.

“When you have guys like Mike Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, the list goes on, it kind of creates opportunities for little old me, because it creates so much attention that’s put on those guys,” Hill said after the game.

“Coach (Sean Payton) is one of the best at being creative and putting guys in positions to be successful. I got lucky because I was that guy tonight.”

The Saints earned their third straight NFC South title with this win, and they’re right to want more. When you have depth and breadth along the roster like this, you are going to be a very tough out in the postseason.

2. Seattle Seahawks

(Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports)

(10-2. Last week: 4)

The Seahawks came into Monday Night Football against the Vikings with a 5-0 record in games decided by four points or less, and an average margin of victory of 5.4 in their nine wins. And given the fact that Seattle and Minnesota are about as similarly designed as two NFL teams can be, you knew this was going to be a tight one. Things went a bit off the rails with this bizarre pick-six for safety Anthony Harris off a Russell Wilson deflection…

…but the Seahawks were able to swing back from that 14-7 deficit with the dual rushing attack of Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, and Wilson’s own ability to exploit Minnesota’s vulnerable outside cornerbacks, especially Xavier Rhodes, in a 37-30 win. Wilson didn’t advance his own MVP argument against Lamar Jackson (who may have the thing wrapped up at this point), but he did take back the lead in touchdown passes on the season from Jackson with his two on the night. Perhaps the most important thing for Pete Carroll’s team as they look to make a dent in the playoffs is a secondary that, aside from the occasional busted play, has shown a great deal of improvement in the second half of the season.

1. Baltimore Ravens

(Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports)

(10-2. Last week: 1)

Six days after they demolished the Rams in a 45-6 Monday Night Football showcase for Lamar Jackson’s talents, the Ravens found themselves in a real pier-sixer against the 49ers, who looked entirely capable of taking John Harbaugh’s team down. San Francisco fooled Baltimore’s defense for a 33-yard touchdown pass from Jimmy Garoppolo to Deebo Samuel on a fourth-down gamble on their first possession, and the Ravens responded by punting at the end of a drive with Jackson on the field for the first time since Week 9.

Jackson eventually was able to find his footing as a runner, gaining 101 yards and scoring a touchdown on 16 carries, but San Francisco countered him as a passer with a mush-rush that kept Jackson in the pocket, and the 49ers’ secondary was good enough to limit the damage. Jackson threw five touchdown passes against the Rams on just 20 attempts, but this time around, there was just one touchdown pass on 23 attempts — and a lot of missed connections with his receivers as the torrential weather at Baltimore’s M&T Bank Stadium presented unfamiliar challenges for Jackson.

In the end, it was the efforts of the most prolific fourth-down team in the NFL that turned the tide. With 6:33 left in the game, Garoppolo attempted a pass to tight end George Kittle, but the pass was knocked down by defensive end Chris Wormley. Baltimore took the ball with 6:28 left, and the 49ers never saw the ball again. Justin Tucker’s 49-yard field goal as the clock ran out gave the Ravens a tight, tough win that positions them for the top seed in the AFC.

32-25 | 24-17 | 16-9 | 8-1

Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar previously covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4, Page 5