8. Green Bay Packers
(8-3. Last week: 5)
Packers running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams came into Week 12 with 20 scrimmage touchdowns, more than any duo in the NFL. The 49ers came into Sunday night’s game against the Pack with their run defense as its one obvious vulnerability on that side of the ball. Jones and Williams combined for 24 carries and 83 of Green Bay’s 198 net yards — not that it mattered in a 37-8 embarrassment for Matt LaFleur’s team. Aaron Rodgers completed 20 of 33 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers; his 3.15 yards per attempt total was a career low when attempting over 12 passes in a game. Pressured mercilessly by Nick Bosa and his buddies, Rodgers was sacked five times and hit 10 more. This was as severe a repudiation as a one-loss team could hand to a formerly two-loss team, and though the Packers are still a solid team against any team that isn’t from California and doesn’t have a Bosa brother on its roster (Rodgers had a similar stinker against Joey Bosa and the Chargers in Week 9), but this loss, and the degree to which the Packers were punked on both sides of the ball has to pump the brakes on any talk of Super Bowl contention.
7. Minnesota Vikings
(8-3. Week 12 Bye. Last week: 7)
Last week, the Vikings became the first team over the past five seasons to come back from a first-half deficit of at least 20-0 to win. Other teams in that time period in similar circumstances went 0-99. The halftime adjustment to a no-huddle offense was just the trick against the Broncos and their variable coverage and pressure looks, and it was a great coaching job by offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski has also introduced boot-action into the Vikings’ offense at a league-high rate, to Kirk Cousins’ extreme benefit — per Sports Info Solutions, Cousins has attempted an NFL-high 43 boot-action throws this season (Russell Wilson ranks second with 32) with 29 completions for 495 yards, seven of his 21 touchdown passes and one interception. Boot-action has done several things to improve Cousins’ game — it takes him out of pressure between the tackles, it reduces the field to make his reads easier and more consistent, and it allows for shot plays downfield as coverages break to deal with a running quarterback. Stefanski is calling his best games at a crucial point in the season, and he’s a primary reason the Vikings must be taken seriously down the stretch.
6. Buffalo Bills
(8-3. Last week: 9)
The big news in Buffalo’s 20-3 win over the Broncos was Frank Gore’s 65 rushing yards, which moved him to 15,289 yards for his career, moving him to third in NFL history behind only Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton. Rookie Devin Singletary contributed 106 yards on 21 carries, quarterback Josh Allen threw two touchdown passes, and Buffalo’s defense overwhelmed Denver quarterback Brandon Allen. The Broncos had just three drives that went into Buffalo territory, and their five final drives were all three-and-outs for a total of two yards. Allen had just four yards passing in the first half. Are the Bills the most under-the-radar eight-win team through 12 weeks of an NFL season in recent memory? It’s starting to look that way.
5. New Orleans Saints
(9-2. Last week: 3)
The Saints kept up with the Seahawks and just behind the 49ers in an NFC race that seems increasingly low on oxygen at the top. It took more than one might expect for New Orleans to beat the Panthers, 37-34, in a last-second thriller. Carolina overcame a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter with a 4-yard Christian McCaffrey run and a 2-yard touchdown pass from Kyle Allen to D.J. Moore (who also caught passes of 51 and 52 yards) to tie the game, but the Panthers’ inability to push it in from the Saints’ 3-yard line on their final drive, and Joey Slye’s missed field goal with 2:00 left in the game, set things up for New Orleans’ definitive drive. That Drew Brees’ team had the better kicker in Will Lutz was the deciding factor in a game that was messier than Sean Payton wanted it to be. Payton’s team finished with 12 penalties for 123 yards, including a highly ironic pass-interference call, and a pass defense that was vulnerable without cornerback Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) allowed Allen to look like a franchise quarterback. The Saints have little time to recover from this one, as they play in Atlanta on Thanksgiving.
4. Seattle Seahawks
(9-2. Last week: 6)
The Seahawks’ win over the Eagles on Sunday resembled the Legion of Boom days more than most anything Russell Wilson has accomplished this season. Though he did connect with receiver Malik Turner on a ridiculous 33-yard flea-flicker touchdown, Wilson was uncharacteristically shut down by Philly’s normally vulnerable secondary, completing 13 of 25 passes for 200 yards, that one touchdown, and his third interception of the year. It was Seattle’s defense, with its ability to harass Carson Wentz and shut down the Eagles’ limited receivers, who really defined this game — even without the injured Jadeveon Clowney. Also, 2018 first-round pick (and near-bust based on overall performance) Rashaad Penny gained a career-high 128 yards on the ground. Another unusual wrinkle: The team known for the most prominent home-field advantage in the NFL is one of two remaining undefeated road teams, and the Seahawks’ 6-0 away record beats San Francisco’s by one game.
3. New England Patriots
(10-1. Last week: 4)
Coming into Dallas’ tussle with the Patriots on Sunday afternoon, Dak Prescott was the NFL’s most prolific quarterback against man coverage, with 70 completions in 111 attempts for 1,033 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions. Then, the Patriots showed Prescott the difference between enjoying ice cream and working in an ice cream factory. New England’s lockdown man coverage, especially when cornerback Stephon Gilmore was involved, was far too much for Prescott and his targets to handle. Amari Cooper, primarily Gilmore’s responsibility, was held without a catch for the first time as a Cowboy, and Prescott managed just 19 completions in 33 attempts for 212 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. The weather played a role — rain limited Tom Brady’s efficiency as well — but if you’re still discounting this secondary due to inferior opponents, Sunday’s performance should put a sock in that.
2. San Francisco 49ers
(10-1. Last week: 2)
After an overtime loss to the Seahawks in Week 10, and a near-stumble against the Cardinals in Week 11, the 49ers were starting to look mortal. But any serious questions about the vulnerability of the NFC’s best team went straight out the window after Sunday night’s 37-8 demolition of the Packers. When Aaron Rodgers could get away from San Francisco’s furious pass rush (which wasn’t often), San Francisco’s airtight secondary shut down his receivers and made consistent offensive performance nearly impossible. And though Kyle Shanahan’s offense has been a bit limited in the run game over the past three games, Jimmy Garoppolo has taken the passing game to a new level, especially with the return of tight end George Kittle, who caught six passes on six targets for 129 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay’s overwhelmed defense. This was a team in need of an undisputed win, and boy, did it get one.
1. Baltimore Ravens
(9-2. Last week: 1)
So, this worked out pretty well. The Ravens made the defending NFC Champion Rams look like a high-school team on Monday Night Football in a 45-6 blowout, and Lamar Jackson continued a quarterback season the likes of which we’ve never seen before. In this game alone, Jackson became the first player in NFL history with:
3,000 passing yards and 1,500 rushing yards in his first two seasons;
50 rushing yards and four passing touchdowns in consecutive games; and
Five passing touchdowns in his Monday Night Football debut.
The Ravens scored touchdowns on each of their first six drives. They successfully converted all three of their fourth-down tries. They were six of seven in the red zone, and three-for-three in goal-to-go situations. Jackson threw those five touchdown passes on just 20 attempts. The Ravens racked up 480 total yards to the Rams’ 221, and ran 74 plays to the Rams’ 48.
If you want to know how complete this domination was, consider this: Per NextGen Stats, the Ravens ran right at Aaron Donald 13 times, gaining 87 yards and scoring a touchdown. Yes, they double-teamed him a ton, but Donald’s used to that. When you turn the NFL’s best defensive lineman into an accessory after the fact, you are indeed on a roll. With all due respect to the 49ers, their entire season, and what they just did to the Packers, there is no better or more dangerous team than the Ravens right now. If the 49ers want to contest that, they have the perfect opportunity this upcoming Sunday.
Touchdown Wire editor Doug Farrar has also covered football for Yahoo! Sports, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, the Washington Post, and Football Outsiders. His first book, “The Genius of Desperation,” a schematic history of professional football, was published by Triumph Books in 2018 and won the Professional Football Researchers Association’s Nelson Ross Award for “Outstanding recent achievement in pro football research and historiography.”