NFL Week 1 prop bets: Hell yeah, let’s take a bunch of overs

Austin Ekeler. Christian Kirk. Trey Lance. Let’s buy into some hype and make some cash.

No longer will bettors have to sweat out no-run first innings or showdowns between Conference USA and the FCS. The NFL season is nearly upon us.

That brings a whole new world of wagers to the table. Sure, you can bet spreads or back underdogs to win outright, but the rising tide of fantasy obsession has placed a larger spotlight on player props than ever before. Last year, you probably cashed enough to buy a nice midsized sedan if you leaned hard on Cooper Kupp overs and Zach Wilson unders.

I didn’t quite get there last year, but I wasn’t Rhode Island Scumbag levels of bad, either. I did well enough with my prop bets to at least somewhat redeem a mediocre record against the spread. Last year’s recommendations wrapped up at 105-79 on the season, a .571 batting average that was, at the very least, mildly profitable.

Here’s who I like in Week 1.

  • Trey Lance longest pass OVER 34.5 yards. The 49ers are loaded with run-after-catch menaces, which helps pad this stat. Even if they weren’t, Niners coach Kyle Shanahan will likely make a statement about his departure from Jimmy Garoppolo by letting his young QB air it out against a talent-deficient Bears defense. Lance completed passes of at least 45 yards in two of his three games with at least 10 attempts last year.
  • Justin Fields OVER 0.5 interceptions. He had 10 in 12 games last season. The 49ers don’t have a great secondary, but they do have a great pass rush. Expect lots of pressure and the bad, pickable throws that come with them.
  • Austin Ekeler OVER 57.5 rushing yards. He’s hit 60+ in his last three games against the Raiders. The one time he failed to get there he had only four carries … and gained 47 yards.
  • Christian Kirk OVER 4.5 receptions and 52.5 receiving yards. Kirk had an obscene target share this preseason alongside Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars aren’t paying him $72 million over four years to be a complimentary piece. Washington’s pass defense ranked 28th in DVOA last fall.
  • Micah Parsons OVER 0.5 sacks. Tom Brady’s offensive line is rebuilt. If Parsons gets past them there’s no way Brady’s gonna escape unless someone is wide open.

And here are the bets I kind of like, just not enough to officially recommend in bold:

  • Chris Olave OVER 40.5 receiving yards.
  • Joe Mixon OVER 67.5 rushing yards. He’s had at least 62 in each of his last six games against the Steelers and 79+ in four of his last five.

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