Do you remember when NFL games used to end with scores like 14-7? Yeah, neither do we. Over recent years, NFL scoring trends have dramatically shifted, leaving sports bettors trying to predict the next big shootout—or the rare defensive slugfest. If you’re looking to make smarter bets by understanding these trends, you’ve come to the right place.
This blog is going to break down NFL scoring patterns, highlight what’s driving high and low-scoring games, and sharing how you can make sense of it all when placing your bets.
NFL Scoring Trends – A Quick Look at the Numbers
Before getting into the nitty-gritty, let’s talk stats. Recent years in the NFL have shown us that scoring is on the rise. More teams are putting points on the board, and it’s not just by chance. Here are some numbers to set the stage:
- Passing touchdowns are at an all-time high. Back in the early 2000s, a team’s quarterback throwing for 30 touchdowns in a season was elite territory. Now, it feels like every top-tier QB breezes past this number.
- Offensive coordinators love airing it out. The pass-heavy nature of today’s NFL means more deep throws, quick scores, and, of course, touchdowns.
- Overs tend to hit more often. Bettors love a good high-scoring game, and the oddsmakers know it. Recent seasons show “Overs” (total points going over the set line) cashing in more often than they used to.
But hold up—it’s not all points galore. There are still teams out there grinding out low-scoring, defense-heavy games. To win at NFL betting, you’ve got to identify which styles of play you’re dealing with.
What Drives High-Scoring Teams?
High-scoring NFL teams usually have more in their arsenal than just a superstar quarterback (although a great quarterback can separate winners from also-rans). Here’s what creates the fireworks:
1. Elite Quarterbacks
It doesn’t matter if it’s Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Justin Herbert – if a team has a top-tier QB, expect points (and lots of them). These guys can read defenses faster than you can say “touchdown” and are experts at shredding secondary coverage.
2. Fast-Paced Plays
Offensive coordinators are churning out plays faster than highlights hit YouTube. Teams like the Buffalo Bills or the Miami Dolphins are prime examples, running up-tempo offenses that keep defenses on their heels. More plays = more chances to score.
3. Weak Defenses
Sometimes, it’s not all about the offense. Some high-scoring teams simply play shootouts because, well, their own defense couldn’t stop a Pop Warner team. Look at squads with weak secondaries in particular—they’re often involved in over/under drama.
4. Big-Time Playmakers
Think Tyreek Hill streaking down the sideline or George Kittle busting out a 50-yard catch-and-run. High-scoring teams have guys capable of taking it to the house on any given snap.
What about Low-Scoring Teams?
For every high-flying offense, there’s a team out there grinding games down to a 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust pace. Here’s what often creates those defensive slogs that test your patience (and your betting strategies):
1. Defensive Powerhouses
Teams like the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys have squads stacked with playmakers on defense. They force turnovers, hold offenses to field goals, and keep scoring low.
2. Run-Heavy Offenses
A run-heavy offense eats up the game clock like it’s Thanksgiving dinner. Teams like the Tennessee Titans lean on their ground game (hello, Derrick Henry!) to control possession and limit scoring opportunities.
3. Bad Quarterbacks
Not every team gets an MVP under center. Some have quarterbacks throwing incompletions like it’s a hobby. Pity the fans who constantly watch punts.
4. Weather Conditions
Don’t forget about those November snow games or December run-wild slogs. Bad weather leads to fewer deep throws and more low-scoring action.
How to Bet on High- and Low-Scoring Teams
Now comes the good part—making smart bets based on these trends. Whether you’re backing teams to light up the scoreboard or cautiously eyeing those grind-it-out matchups, you’ve got options.
1. Pay Attention to the Over/Under
This is where football lines from FanDuel come in clutch. Oddsmakers set totals based on trends, injuries, and how two teams match up. High-scoring teams? Overs might be a smart play. Low-scoring squads? The under could cash in.
2. Study the Teams’ Playing Styles
Before placing a bet, ask yourself:
- Does this team have a strong running game that eats up the clock?
- Is the defense stout, or do they look like Swiss cheese?
- Is the quarterback a gunslinger or a game manager?
3. Check Recent Trends
Has a team been in shootouts weekly, or did their last three games end 14-10? Trends matter when predicting if teams will score above or below the number.
4. Don’t Forget About Weather
You’ve seen it before—two high-powered teams matched up, only for a snowstorm to turn it into a snoozefest. Be sure to check weather reports for outdoor games.
5. Watch for Injuries
If the star QB or a defense-shattering wide receiver is questionable, think twice. A single injury can completely swing the total points in a game.
Examples of High-Scoring vs. Low-Scoring Matchups
Here are some recent examples to help you out and guide your betting decisions.
- High-Scoring Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (Regular season shootout games routinely rack up points in the 30s and beyond).
- Low-Scoring Matchup: New York Jets vs. New England Patriots (A battle of defenses combined with offenses struggling to find the end zone).
Look for similar patterns when researching the week’s matchups—your bankroll will thank you.
Bet Smart, Stay Sharp
NFL scoring trends provide a wealth of information for bettors, but the key is knowing how to apply it. High-scoring offenses, defensive masterminds, and even something as simple as bad weather can be the difference between winning big or being left empty-handed.