It’s time to scrutinize the 2020 NFL schedule. It’s time to pretend we know what will happen next season — if there is a season. It’s time to weigh strength of schedule, timing of bye and home-field advantage in order to guesstimate how the season may come together for each team.
We’ve got this, folks. Leave it to us.
Why are there only seven teams on this list when there are eight divisions? Well, no one has an easy path to the division title in the NFC West. That division is a total disaster zone, with the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams looking impressive. Any one of those teams could, in theory, finish on top.
Otherwise, here’s an exercise in educated conjecture. Here are seven teams with the easiest path to winning their division.
1. Dallas Cowboys
The Week 10 bye is actually nice. A late-season bye can work in a team’s advantage to help them carry into the postseason. But it’s no so late that they’ll be limping into the bye. They also get an extra week to prepare for the Vikings in Week 11 — Minnesota will probably have another strong season in 2020. And the Cowboys’ matchup against the Ravens essentially comes after another bye in Week 13 against the Washington Redskins. Dallas finishes their season with games against the Eagles and Giants. That should help them hold onto their division lead, if they get one.
2. Baltimore Ravens
They’re better than everyone else in their division by a multiple of 3. That is probably enough to get them to the top of the division. Baltimore also gets a Week 8 bye, and they finish the season vs. Jacksonville, vs. New York and at Cincinnati. Those are three easy wins to close out the year. Vegas loves the Cleveland Browns‘ strength of schedule (or lack thereof). But I can’t bring myself to pick Cleveland — they always make easy schedules look difficult.
3. Minnesota Vikings
They’ve got a tough schedule. This whole division’s schedule is tough. In theory, the Vikings can get a 1-0 lead over the Packers during their matchup in Week 1. Green Bay has an unfortunate Week 5 bye, but the Vikings get a slightly more advantageous bye in Week 7. Minnesota also finishes the season with two games which should be easy wins: the Bears (Week 15) and the Lions (Week 17). The Vikings also get a shot at the Saints in Week 16. It’s not an easy game, but it might be useful, if Minnesota needs to climb the ladder in the NFC standings.
4. Indianapolis Colts
They have the easiest schedule in the NFL, according to Las Vegas. Their schedule is comically unimpressive. They get to be at home for all of their toughest games: vs. the Vikings, vs. the Ravens and vs. the Packers.
5. New England Patriots
The entire AFC East is looking at a tough schedule, as they’re facing off against the NFC West. That shouldn’t be pretty. There’s a lot to like about the Buffalo Bills, whose defense is excellent and offense rides and dies with Josh Allen. There’s even more to like about all the talent headed to the Miami Dolphins. But Bill Belichick provides the biggest advantage for New England in handling that schedule. The Patriots have a few tough scheduling quirks, including a Week 6 bye and back-to-back games in L.A. But no one in the AFC East is happy with what they have on their schedule. Belichick is best equipped to manage, even without Tom Brady.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers’ drew the Rams out of the NFC west (while the Saints drew the 49ers). I’d argue L.A. is probably going finish at the bottom of the NFC West in 2020 — they seem in line for a major regression. The Bucs also finish their season with two games against the Falcons and one game against the Detroit Lions. Both teams could be jockeying for the No. 1 overall pick. Maybe the Bucs lose in Week 1 to New Orleans. That’ll be fine, with the schedule looking fairly easy in Weeks 2 though Week 5 (vs. Panthers, @ Broncos, vs. Chargers and @ Bears).
7. Kansas City Chiefs
The Denver Broncos look like they have an easy-ish schedule. The L.A. Chargers have an obscenely gifted defense. But those teams have to play the Chiefs twice. Even more than that, Kansas City’s defense doesn’t have much to worry about in the division with quarterbacks Drew Lock (second year), journeyman Tyrod Taylor (or rookie Justin Herbert) and Derek Carr (or Marcus Mariota. This is the Chiefs’ division — no problem.
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