Week 15 continued our winning ways and was a Jonathan Taylor injury away from 6-1. Our hit rate remains over a wildly unsustainable — but nicely profitable — 67 percent. It’s even better in the unofficial leans section, which haven’t been as hot lately but are still cashing at an 80 percent clip.
Week 16 provides a few more opportunities and a caveat. We’ve seen teams fall flat on their faces late this season. Now several of those same squads are working through a holiday weekend. The capacity for Christmas shenanigans is high, even after a shenanigan-filled weekend (thanks, Colts and Patriots!).
Here’s who I like to leave some presents in our betting accounts in the season’s antepenultimate week. Official plays are in bold.
Geno Smith OVER 15.5 rushing yards. Smith has hit this total in six of his last seven games and the the Chiefs rank sixth-to-last in rushing yards given up to opposing QBs. Factor in Tyler Lockett’s absence and the likelihood Seattle will be trailing early on a cold day and you’ve got a recipe for a handful of Smith scrambles.
Travis Kelce OVER 74.5 receiving yards. The Seahawks give up more receiving yards to tight ends than all but two other teams in 2022 and more than 14.5 yards per TE catch. Pair this up with Kelce’s longest reception OVER 21.5 yards.
Darius Slayton OVER 47.5 receiving yards. We’re back on Slayton after two underwhelming weeks thanks to a promising matchup against the Vikings’ 27th-ranked pass defense and the likelihood the Giants, who have a playoff spot on the line, will be playing from behind for much of the afternoon.
Gus Edwards OVER 36.5 rushing yards. He’s averaged better than six yards per carry over his last two games and now gets the league’s 26th-ranked rush defense. JK Dobbins’ number is a little higher at 56.5, but we cashed on these two before halftime last week. Might as well stack them up again: JK Dobbins OVER 56.5 rushing yards.
Jauan Jennings OVER 28.5 receiving yards. He’s hit this total in four of his last five games and now gets to operate against a top-heavy Commanders secondary. He played a season-high 54 snaps last week in Deebo Samuel’s absence and should improve on the five targets he had vs. the Seahawks.
Joe Burrow OVER 259.5 passing yards. His total has dropped thanks to frigid temperatures in Foxborough. But the Patriots’ secondary is a mess right now and this is the least disciplined team in Bill Belichick’s history. If you can get value betting against New England, take it.
Last week: 5-2 (.714)
Season to date: 69-33 (.676)