When cherry picking prop bets to make, the best idea is to spread the wealth around. For this week’s picks, we’ve selected two quarterbacks, two tight ends and a backup running back to bring home the money. Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Week 9, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Week 9 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen OVER 2.5 touchdown passes (+140)
If you take Allen out of the equation, the Bills run game is pedestrian at best. For Buffalo to be successful, they need to throw early and often. Since Week 3, the Bills have had only rushing touchdown from Zack Moss and Devin Singletary.
The only concern here is that Allen will run in one or two. Against the hapless Jaguars, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Bills offense put up 38 points. With his receiving weapons, although the number dares you to take it, Allen could have four passing TDs in this game, which doesn’t make three seem as daunting.
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Las Vegas Raiders TE Darren Waller OVER 5.5 receptions (+100)
Typically, when a team comes off a bye week, it has been a time for reflection and reassessment of what works and what doesn’t. When the Raiders offense is hitting on a cylinders, it typically includes a heavy dose of Waller.
With Henry Ruggs no longer on the team, everyone in the receivers room is going to have to step up, and the most likely candidate is Waller. Even two or three more targets will be critical to exceeding this number, and while getting even money suggests he won’t, this could be a breakout game against a Giants defense that struggles with athletic tight ends.
Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins UNDER 274.5 passing yards (-114)
The Vikings blew a golden opportunity to beat Dallas without Dak Prescott, but the Cowboys did what every team that beats Minnesota does – pressure Cousins. Few teams blitz as often as the Ravens, and they know this weakness.
In a game where both teams are going to try to establish the run, the only way Cousins hits this number is if his team is behind by 17 points in the second half. Throw in that starting center Garrett Bradbury is sidelined in the COVID protocol, and this has the makings of Cousins having to get rid of the ball quickly and not having a clean pocket, which are typically the recipe for disaster with him.
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Kansas City TE Travis Kelce OVER 74.5 receiving yards (-114)
Kelce has had 65 or fewer receiving yards in four of the last five games, which is why his number has come down to this level. Historically, when he is in a funk like this, the Chiefs playcallers do something about it.
The key to this bet is that Kelce is still be targeted more than 10 times a game and is capable of making the downfield plays that eat up yardage quickly. To hit this number, he may only need five catches because there will be a 20-to-25-yard catch (or a couple) in the mix that will help get to this point. I think 100 is possible in this one.
Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard OVER 40.5 rushing yards (-114)
This one is simply done by the numbers. Ezekiel Elliott is the man in the Cowboys run offense, but Pollard is getting a lot of touches along the way. In his last five games with Dak Prescott as his quarterback, Pollard has never had less than 10 carries and has averaged 12 in that span.
With the team looking to protect Prescott, a steady diet of the run game will feature both Elliott and Pollard, who has often looked like the more explosive of the two backs. Pollard is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and if he gets 10, he should blow past this number.
Also see: All Week 9 odds and lines
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