As Week 6 descends, we take a lot at those players whose numbers we like too much to ignore – both the overinflated and underinflated. Defenses are building a history that comes into play as we get into the meat of the season and these are Over/Under stat lines that jump out. Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Week 6, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Week 6 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:40 p.m. ET.
Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert UNDER 293.5 passing yards (-114)
Few quarterbacks are capable of the numbers Herbert can put up. He has only one game of less than 280 passing yards and three of 335 and above. However, he’s playing a Ravens team that is going to make him earn his yardage.
Baltimore will look to control the clock and the Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league and have been dominated on the ground by the likes of Dallas, Kansas City and Cleveland. Whether it’s QB Lamar Jackson or the mix-and-match backfield, the Ravens are capable of holding the ball for 35-40 minutes, which makes hitting that number more than just a little bit difficult.
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New England Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Cowboys have a potent offense that can hurt you in a lot of ways. But, they also have a defense that gets put on the field too long and gives up far too many big plays.
We’re only five games into the season and the Cowboys have allowed seven different receivers to post games of 90 or more yards. Meyers is the best wide receiver on the Patriots roster and won’t need to catch seven or eight passes to hit that number. He may end up catching seven or eight but will have this number covered by the time he does.
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 256.5 passing yards (-114)
This one was a coin-flip between taking the Over on running back Najee Harris to surpass his rushing total or to take Roethlisberger and his passing number. Seattle is in the condition it’s in because teams are able to run on them almost at will if they commit.
The Steelers are in last place in a division they are never in last. Harris has the chance to run 20-25 times, and Big Ben is going to be asked to move the chains, not cut it loose. If Russell Wilson was playing, it would be a much different story, but Pittsburgh can pressure Geno Smith into the critical mistakes that win a 24-20 type game and Roethlisberger will be asked to game manage to get his team to .500 – not take stupid chances downfield that could give the visitors some hope.
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Arizona WR De’Andre Hopkins OVER 70.5 receiving yards (-112)
Kyler Murray is dinged up, but the Cards are the last unbeaten team in the league and that is something the final heirs to the throne take seriously. There are multiple weapons that Arizona uses in its pass attack and Hopkins is the most lethal of that group.
The bottom line is that the Browns defense allows too many splash plays. They’ve allowed five receivers to top 75 yards in five games and Hopkins is more dangerous than almost all of them. It may take four of five catches to get there, but look for D-Hop to get his and cover this total.
Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp OVER 6.5 receptions (-135)
When it comes to Over/Under betting on Kupp, it’s much more difficult to project yardage totals than it is reception totals. He may only gain 50 yards, but it typically comes with a minimum of 5 receptions barring injury. I would have thought this one would be at 7.5 to force the hand of those willing to take the Under.
The Giants are allowing 26 completions a game and that includes games against Teddy Bridgewater, Taylor Heinicke and Jameis Winston. Opposing QBs have a passer rating of 108.5. Matthew Stafford will likely make that number worse and Kupp will be a big part of that.
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