With a month’s worth of games in the books, teams are starting to show what they’re looking like in 2021. Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Week 5, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
This week, we look at those players whose starts have lent their Over/Under numbers to drop to low and others who have proved themselves to require so much defensive attention their numbers may well be too high to send bettors to the pay window.
Week 5 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Houston Texans wide receiver Brandin Cooks UNDER 64.5 receiving yards (-112)
One thing that New England head coach Bill Belichick is legendary for is taking the player he perceives to be a team’s biggest threat from an offense. No player in the league has a bigger reception share than Cooks with the Texans. Through four games, he has 28 receptions. Nobody else has more than eight. The Pats are going to dominate time of possession and force the Texans to use somebody else to beat them because Belichick won’t be shy about doubling Cooks (a former player of his) on every down.
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Philadelphia Eagles tight end Zach Ertz OVER 27.5 receiving yards (-114)
After a contentious offseason and a dismal start to the year (just four targets in the first two games), Ertz has quietly come around the last two weeks, posting games of 53 and 60 yards against Dallas and Kansas City. He comes up against a Carolina defense that has been oppressive against the run and forced opponents to pass. A 27.5-yard Over/Under seems shockingly low given that the Eagles are likely going to have to pass 35-40 times because rushing yards won’t come easily. It may only take two catches down the seam to hit this number, much less if he catches five, which is his average over the last two weeks.
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers UNDER 2.5 passing touchdowns (-135)
It’s always tough betting against Rodgers under any circumstance because he can light up anybody at any time. But, the fact of the matter is the Packers defense is suspect and has difficulty getting off the field. In four games, Rodgers has thrown three TD passes just once, and the NFL is quickly learning that the Cincinnati Bengals aren’t just a “cute story.” In four games, Cincinnati has allowed just four passing touchdowns. This is a defense that is legit because it plays in a hard-nosed division where they’ve been last for a long time. If Rodgers throws three TD passes, he will have to earn it because the Bengals haven’t allowed more than three touchdowns total in any game this season.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans OVER 65.5 receiving yards (-114)
Tampa Bay reverted to a run-heavy offense against the Patriots because they felt they had with the scheme Bill Belichick was going to throw at Tom Brady in their reunion. Miami provides no such fear factor. His Over/Under seems strange because he has posted 75 or more receiving yards in each of his last three games, and the Dolphins don’t bring a lights-out defense to the table. While there is always the concern that there are too many weapons, it would seem this number is an over-correction for the rushing attack from last week. Brady will come out throwing and, when he does, Evans will be a primary option on every play.
Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb UNDER 88.5 rushing yards (-108)
Chubb hasn’t had less than 83 rushing yards in any game this season. This bet is more about the opponent than the Browns offense. The Browns are going to try to set the tone early with long drives to keep the Chargers’ potent pass offense off the field. However, if L.A. can get off to a fast start, those plans may change in a hurry. That, combined with an expanding role for Kareem Hunt makes this hard to overly endorse because so many factors could come into play that would prevent Chubb from rushing 20 times, which is likely what he will need to hit that lofty pre-game number.
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