With injuries starting to pile up around the NFL, opportunities are created that make betting the Over/Under a little more attractive to make a run. Our list this week is quarterback-heavy, and the question is whether they can achieve some lofty numbers projected for them. Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Week 4, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Week 4 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:40 a.m. ET.
Minnesota Vikings Quarterback Kirk Cousins UNDER 282.5 passing yards (-114)
Cousins has been playing some of the best ball of his life and will be at home against Cleveland. However, his offensive line has been hit and miss, RB Dalvin Cook (ankle) will be a game-time decision and the Browns have one of the most fierce pass rushes in the league. Cousins is at his best when he has a clean pocket. That likely won’t be the case with the Browns coming after him with a rush that will force him to get rid of the ball early. This should be a tightly contested game, and 282.5 yards may require 25 completions or more to accomplish, which will be tough if the Browns can run the ball like they have so often the last two seasons.
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Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce UNDER 90.5 receiving yards (-114)
It’s always a gamble betting against Kelce, who has topped 100 yards in each of the last two games. But, much of his success is attributed to opponents doubling Tyreek Hill on most plays. The Eagles play a reckless defense that will see the middle clogged with defenders more than Kelce has been used to, and while he may well catch seven or eight passes, it will take one splash reception or more to hit that lofty number. He will be close, but the Under has the greater likelihood of happening against this particular defense.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford OVER 299.5 passing yards (-114)
Stafford has been a Godsend in Los Angeles, topping 320 passing yards and two of three games. The thing about the Rams and Cardinals is that, while both have good defenses, they tend to get in passing shootouts (and that was with Jared Goff). The Cardinals are going to find out the hard way that Stafford can carve them up. With questionable run games for both teams, this has all the makings of an aerial circus, and until a defense proves it can shut the Rams passing game down, Stafford will keep stacking up 300-yard passing games.
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Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-114)
The Panthers are unbeaten, but it should be noted that those wins came against the Jets, Saints and Panthers – all offenses in flux with new starting quarterbacks still learning their systems. The Cowboys don’t have that problem. The Panthers run defense has been impressive, The Saints only ran Alvin Kamara eight times in their matchup. His Over/Under is so low because he has been losing carries to Tony Pollard, but Elliott has had more carries in each game this season, and if he hits 15 carries, he should be able to hit that modest number.
Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson UNDER 68.5 rushing yards (-114)
The Broncos defense hasn’t been severely tested facing the Giants, Jaguars and Jets, but they do have a sound defense and the Ravens don’t want Jackson to run. He will to create big plays, but if Baltimore wants to make a long run, they need to keep Jackson healthy. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a back injury, and while he came back to practice in full Friday, he is clearly not 100 percent. The best move for the Ravens coaching staff is to try to keep him in the pocket as much as possible because another big blow could have their star QB on the sidelines, and Baltimore’s odds of winning then could well go out the window. He will likely make it close, but take the Under because the coaches will design plays to protect him, not expose him.
Also see: Week 4 staff picks
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