We’re two weeks into the 2021 NFL season. Some teams are hitting on all cylinders, some are taking on water in the boat; others are finding their footing. Injuries are starting to factor in and can be the critical difference when it comes to hitting a prop bet or losing it. Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Week 3, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Week 3 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:20 a.m. ET.
Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon OVER 17.5 rushing attempts (-130)
There is a changing of the guard taking place in a divisional matchup the Pittsburgh Steelers have dominated. In his first two games (against the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears) Mixon had 49 carries. The Bengals are making him a bell-cow running back for a reason, not just to give the offense balance.
Pittsburgh’s offense struggles to make a lot of big splash plays because age is showing on QB Ben Roethlisberger. This game should be close, which only lends itself to Mixon being a focal point to the offense and, barring a double-digit deficit early, he should hit 20 carries again – even if he only gains 60 yards.
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Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson UNDER 285.5 passing yards (-114)
Seattle’s opponents have had the ball a mind-boggling 15 minutes more per game than its offense. That has to change.
The only way it changes is if the Seahawks commit to the run game and work the clock on offense. The Seahawks aren’t built to win games 38-35; they’re built to grind out 23-20 wins. Wilson only threw 23 passes in Seattle’s 28-16 Week 1 win over the Indianapolis Colts. In the game he lost, he threw for 343 yards on 31 attempts.
This is the fourth straight year and the sixth time in seven years, Russ has played the Vikings. He is 6-0 in his career against Minnesota because he gets a lead and drains the clock.
That’s Under all day long.
Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill OVER 82.5 receiving yards (-114)
The thing about betting on Hill is that you take the Over every time unless he’s playing against a coach who makes a concerted effort to take him away and allow QB Patrick Mahomes to dominate using other receivers.
The Chargers aren’t one of those teams.
Hill has hit them hard, especially on the road. The coolest part of taking the Over with Hill is that, regardless of game time or situation, he can come close to covering that number with one catch. He has averaged 16.53 yards per reception against the Chargers for his career. If he catches five passes, he’ll have this number covered.
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Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady UNDER 308.5 passing yards (-114)
I’m rarely one to underestimate the G.O.A.T., but 309 passing yards against the Rams defense almost requires the Bucs to be down by double digits at some point.
Brady is getting absurdly high passing yardage Over/Unders because the band is back together. Through two weeks, he has faced the accommodating defenses provided by the Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons. The Rams are a lot better than either of them and putting a 3-burger on the Rams takes some doing if they aren’t ahead by 20.
This isn’t going to be a blowout, but it isn’t going to be a shootout. Defensive players get paid, too, and they’re going to earn their money in this one because it’s going to have a playoff feel in Week 3.
New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara OVER 58.5 rushing yards (-114)
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has a history of taking away an opponent’s most vital weapon. As a result, Kamara’s rushing number is a low 58.5 yards.
However, this is the QB Mac Jones version of the Patriots, not Tom Brady. With an Over/Under on this game of 42.5 points, the expectation is going to be that this is a field position and long-drive game with one possession eating up half of the quarter. To win, New Orleans will need to establish and maintain the run game. Forcibly.
That will mean a heavy dose of Kamara and, if he doesn’t hit 59 yards on 18 or more carries, New England will earn winning the Under.
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