The hard part about betting Over/Under props is that, if you bet the Over, you’re losing until you hit the number. If you’re betting the Under, you’re winning until they hit the number. I’ve taken the Under twice this year on Ben Roethlisberger, only to have him hit the Over on the final play of the game at garbage time in a humbling loss. When lightning strikes twice, you seek shelter. While I believe Big Ben should hit the Under every time out, I’m off betting against him, Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Week 13, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Week 13 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:50 a.m. ET.
Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 86.5 receiving yards (-114)
Clearly the oddsmakers don’t want to give Jefferson a number too high, which is great for you. In their previous meeting this year, Jefferson had 100 yards by halftime against the Lions. In his only game at Ford Field, he caught nine passes for 133 yards. While it’s a big number, it’s a number he has blown away in his last two games with the Lions. Without Dalvin Cook, Minnesota will rely on Alexander Mattison to be the ground game. Cook’s contribution in the pass game will be spread out to receivers, and Jefferson is the best on the field Sunday.
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Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor OVER 105.5 rushing yards (-118)
In three games against the Texans, Taylor has averaged a sick 7.4 yards per carry, including 145 yards on just 14 carries earlier this season. The Colts have found the formula to trying to chase down a reeling Tennessee team – steal their blueprint of riding their featured back over and over again. This is a very high number coming in, but Taylor has topped this number in three of his last four and five of his last seven games. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. When it comes to Indy, a back that can control the game flow ain’t broke.
Los Angeles Chargers WR Keenan Allen UNDER 6.5 receptions (+120)
It isn’t that often that you get this kind of return on a receiver needing to catch seven passes for you to lose. However, that is Allen’s legacy – hitting seven or more receptions in games. However, there are a couple of factors that play against this. The Chargers have the worst run defense in the league, and the Bengals have Joe Mixon. The Bengals defense isn’t shy about rolling safeties to take away an opponent’s top receiver. Allen may well hit the seven-reception mark, but to bet that you have to put up $156. The number is clear that he should hit the Over, but defenses get paid, too, and a lot of attention will be paid to Allen.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady OVER 2.5 touchdown passes (+112)
On the flip side of the Allen number is this. Throwing three touchdown passes in a game doesn’t happen that often. However, when it comes to Brady against the Falcons, it does. In his last two games against Atlanta, Brady has thrown nine touchdown passes – four in their last meeting in Week 17 last season when the Bucs needed a win to get into the playoffs and five TDs in their first meeting this season. When Brady gets in the Red Zone he prefers to pass than run, and the Falcons are a defense that gets had too often.
Pittsburgh Steelers WR Diontae Johnson OVER 73.5 receiving yards (-115)
Regardless of opponent, Ben Roethlisberger (who I no longer bet on) has consistently locked in on Johnson. He has 13 or more targets in his last three games and five of his last six. His yardage numbers over the last three games are 83, 101 and 95. The Ravens play a lot of man defense, which lends itself to getting beat over the top. In the 10 games he has played, Johnson has at least one reception of 32 or more yards in six of them. If he sees 12-13 targets, if he makes one splash play, hitting the number on this will be difficult to avoid.
Also see: All Week 13 odds and lines
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