Coming off a week in which defenses stood out and there was a slew of upsets, projected high-scoring, big-production games took a significant hit and had many people who like betting the Over for player yardage taking a second look. Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Week 10, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Week 10 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:10 a.m. ET.
Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson OVER 19.5 rushing yards (-114)
Wilson is back after missing three games with a finger injury. He’s never rushed for fewer than 17 yards against the Packers in eight career games and has had his biggest games when they mean the most – including 64 yards in their last meeting in the playoffs.
With the combination of their season potentially being over with a loss, the absence of RB Chris Carson and Wilson returning from an injury that doesn’t limit his mobility, he could top this number with one run. If he breaks the pocket three or four teams, he will blow past this point.
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Washington Football Team WR Terry McLaurin UNDER 70.5 receiving yards (-112)
McLaurin gets the respect he deserves as the No. 1 receiver on an offensively challenged Washington roster, but he’s going up against a Buccaneers defense that brings pressure to the point where a quarterback doesn’t have time to wait out a deep downfield route to open up.
If McLaurin is going to hit 71 yards, he will likely have to catch six or seven passes to do it, and he has four or fewer receptions in five of eight games and more than seven just once. I like those odds.
Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris OVER 93.5 rushing yards (-114)
The winless Lions come into Heinz Field and anyone with Steelers on their fantasy football rosters can’t stop drooling, and perhaps none more than those with Harris. The rookie running was eased into the lineup in his first four games with just 55 times. Over the last four weeks? He has rushed 95 times with weekly totals of 23, 24, 26 and 22 carries.
The Steelers were 1-3 in the four games that he didn’t have a heavy workload, but as the offense has revolved around him they’ve gone 4-0. Harris will get a ton of carries if it’s a close game, and if the Steelers build a big lead he’ll get more to end the game. 100 yards should be easily within reach if he gets more than 20 carries again.
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Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert UNDER 294.5 passing yards (-114)
Given that Minnesota’s defense is going to be without five of its premiere defensive players – DE Danielle Hunter, S Harrison Smith, LB Anthony Barr, CB Patrick Peterson and DT Michael Pierce – it would seem like a no-brainer that Herbert could hit or surpass 300 passing yards. However, the Chargers have the worst run defense in the NFL by a lot as they allow 161.6 yards a game which is almost 25 yards more per game than the No. 31 ranked Houston Texans.
Minnesota has one of the game’s best running backs in Dalvin Cook and his backup, Alexander Mattison, has topped 100 yards in the two games Cook has missed. Minnesota’s defensive weaknesses will be a challenge, but the Vikings have the offensive makeup to control the ball for 35 minutes or more against a team that can’t stop the run. Can Herbert hit 294 yards in 25 minutes? We’ll see.
Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman scores a touchdown (+160)
Pittman is by far the most targeted receiver for the Colts and QB Carson Wentz is always looking his way when the Colts get in the Red Zone. He has scored five touchdowns over his last five games, including against the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans pass defenses. All those defenses are better than Jacksonville’s so the opportunities will be there for Pittman to find paydirt and bring back positive return on investment.
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