The Denver Broncos (5-8) kick off a Saturday NFL doubleheader by hosting the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (10-3). Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High. Below, we highlight five player/team prop bet predictions for the Broncos in Week 15.
Also see: Bills at Broncos odds, picks and prediction
Denver Broncos Week 15 prop bet predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.
Broncos OVER 0.5 points in the 1st quarter (-210)
Even though the Broncos are averaging only 3.4 first-quarter points per game (29th in the league) and the Bills are permitting only 3.3 (second-fewest), it’s hard to pass on this prop.
Not counting the Week 12 quarterback-less fiasco when Denver managed only a season-low three points all game, the Broncos have been shut out only three times in the first quarter of their other 12 contests.
Bank on at least a field goal in the first quarter Saturday.
First half game total UNDER 24.5 points (-118)
In spite of our first prop recommendation, we foresee something far less than a shootout in the opening 30 minutes.
The Broncos are averaging the second-fewest first-half points in the league (8.2) while the Bills allow the fewest on average (9.1).
Putting those two together puts the Broncos at 8.7, and doing the same for the Bills’ first-half offensive (14.8 PPG) and the Broncos’ defensive (13.4) averages puts Buffalo at 14.1.
Combined, that’s a total of 22.8 points, and with 1.7 points of leeway on the projected total of 24.5, why not take a shot at the first half Under?
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RB Melvin Gordon OVER 12.5 rushing attempts (-118)
The Broncos seemed to have settled on a more-rushing, less-passing offensive formula over the last four games as they’ve averaged 32.3 rushing attempts per contest over that span. By comparison, Denver averaged an even 25 rushes per game over its first nine contests.
As the Broncos’ lead back, Gordon has accounted for 45.8% of the team’s rushing attempt on the season. He has averaged 13.8 carries per contest during the just-mentioned four-game span of rushing uptick, and he’s looked the best he has all season as well, averaging 78.5 rushing yards per outing and 5.71 yards per carry.
With Denver surely desiring to keep Bills QB Josh Allen and the high-powered Bills’ attack (ninth with 27.6 points per game) on the sideline, look for the Broncos to rely heavily on the surging Gordon Saturday.
TE Noah Fant OVER 36.5 receiving yards (-112)
Fant missed Sunday’s 32-27 win over the Carolina Panthers with a non-COVID-19 illness, and with it, he likely missed a chance to be a featured pass-catcher.
Along with 30 rushing attempts in the win, the Broncos featured a noticeably condensed passing game with 14 of QB Drew Lock‘s 26 targets going to tight ends and running backs. Reserve TEs Nick Vannett and Troy Fumagalli combined for 9 targets, 8 receptions (4 apiece) and 73 yards.
In 11 games this season, Fant has had at least 38 receiving yards eight times.
Then there’s the Buffalo defense, which is allowing an average of 64.1 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends — the second-highest mark in the league.
All that considered, gotta roll with the Over for Fant.
Worth a (long) shot: Fant to score a TD (+240) and/or score Broncos’ first TD (+800)
Fant hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2 and is stuck on two TDs for the season.
Given the expected usage just detailed above, we’ll take a shot on Fant ending that drought Saturday with a couple of different TD props to choose from.
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Broncos Wire
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