With the final byes coming this week – no players from Tampa Bay or Carolina playing this week – the NFL is trying to avoid the mythical Week 18 of its schedule. That’s why, once again, we’re going to have two Monday games and welcome Tuesday Night Football back to the mix.
We’ve taken a look at some of the prop bet odds and lines that don’t make a lot of sense to us and have come up with a handful of predictions we believe will take you to the pay window in the NFL’s Week 13.
NFL Week 13 player props
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated 9:15 a.m. ET.
King of the Hill
New Orleans Saints QB Taysom Hill is far from conventional and the Saints rolled past the Denver Broncos last week despite rarely throwing the ball. That can’t happen against an Atlanta Falcons offense capable of putting up 30 points. Hill’s Over/Under for passing attempts is 25.5 (Over: -121, Under: +100).
Given the lines, it’s clear that the bookmakers expect Hill to have to throw often if the Saints are to beat the Falcons. He will.
TAKE THE OVER.
Leader of the Pack
Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has had a renaissance season and has looked like the Rodgers of MVP vintage. Coming up against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that has been shredded much of the season, Rodgers has a lofty passing yardage Over/Under of 280.5 (O: -110, U: -112). The Packers don’t need to be pass-happy to put down the grounded Eagles.
Look for RBs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams to do more than their fair share and prevent Rodgers from throwing 35-40 times and still win comfortably.
TAKE THE UNDER.
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Movin’ On Up
The Minnesota Vikings get WR Adam Thielen back from his COVID-19 quarantine against the Jacksonville Jaguars, so he will likely be the focus of the Jaguars’ defensive attack – what there is left of that.
WR Justin Jefferson has made his case not only to be the best wide receiver in the deepest rookie WR class in draft history, but he is making a case to be Offensive Rookie of the Year. His Over/Under for receiving yards is just 68.5 (O: -112, U: -110). He has become QB Kirk Cousins’ primary go-to threat 20 or more yards down the field. He will only need a couple of those to hit the number and there will be opportunities available.
TAKE THE OVER.
A Rivers Runs Through It
One of the great fantasy football anomalies has been the Indianapolis Colts. With one of the league’s best defenses, the offense has been as nondescript as any in the league. QB Philip Rivers shares the wealth with everyone and nobody gets rich. Eight receivers have more than 200 receiving yards, but nobody has more than 408. That’s why Rivers’ Over/Under for passing yards doesn’t make much sense at 277.5 (O: +100, U: -121) against a Houston Texans team that is finally looking like the team that has consistently gone to the playoffs.
Look for Houston to pressure Rivers and make him earn his yardage in smaller chunks.
TAKE THE UNDER.
Don’t Hate the Drake
The Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams have gotten into their share of passing shootouts over the last few years and the anticipation is that this week will be no exception. The rushing yards prediction for Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake of 49.5 yards (O: -106, U: -115) is shockingly low for a guy who gets the majority of the snaps for an offense capable of using the run or pass to do damage to defenses.
TAKE THE OVER.
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