Week 2 of a standard NFL season sees prop bet odds make immediate corrections and sometimes over-corrections. If a player had a huge Week 1 (like Kansas City Chiefs rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire), the expectation is he may repeat and his projection needs to spike upward accordingly. If there was a surprise in Week 1 (like Detroit Lions RB Adrian Peterson or Carolina Panthers WR Robby Anderson), they’re asked to prove it a second time before their Over/Under numbers are adjusted.
We picked out five numbers we feel are flawed and exploitable. We went 4-1 last week (would have been 5-0 if the Atlanta Falcons had run the ball once or twice in the final 25 minutes of their game) and we see these as matchups that seem a little too good to be true.
NFL Week 2 prop bet payday
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:55 p.m. ET.
Ertz So Good (Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams, 1 p.m. ET)
Eagles TE Zach Ertz got overshadowed by teammate Dallas Goedert in Week 1. That has happened before and it is typically followed by Ertz reaffirming his Alpha Dog status as the primary pass-catcher in Philly the following week.
With an Over/Under of just 46.5 yards (-112 over, -110 under), Ertz is primed for a bounce-back game after a quiet Week 1. Welcome home, Zach.
Take the OVER 46.5 (-112).
Yo, Adrian (Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m. ET)
What made Peterson’s Week 1 performance so impressive was that his in-house competition did nothing. Kerryon Johnson had seven carries for 14 yards and D’Andre Swift had three carries for eight yards. Peterson had 14 carries for 93 yards.
The veteran back has an Over/Under of 43.5 rushing yards (-110 Over, -112 Under) in Week 2. In 20 career games against Green Bay, he has rushed for 2,074 yards. Do the math.
Jump on the OVER 43.5 (-110).
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Dak to the Future (Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET)
This one goes into the “know the coach” category. Cowboys fans are familiar with Mike McCarthy, but not as their own head coach. No coach will get a double-digit lead and immediately start milking the clock with running plays like McCarthy.
QB Dak Prescott has an Over/Under for passing yards of 295.5 (-112 Over, -110 Under). It’s not like he isn’t capable of hitting that number (he did seven times last year), it’s just the McCarthy way is to take the air out of the ball when you have a big lead in the second half. This kills the opportunity for a big numbers day from his QB, just ask Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers.
Take the UNDER 295.5 (-110) and wait out McCarthy.
Austin 3:16 (Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Kansas City Chiefs hammered the Houston Texans in the season opener and now unleash their weapons on the Chargers. With a new-look offense, LA. is likely going to be playing from behind, which is where RB Austin Ekeler has proved to be his most dangerous, as the Chargers face prevent defenses late in games.
Ekeler’s Over/Under for receiving yards is just 33.5 (-110 Over, -115 Under). In his last three games against the Chiefs, he has caught 22 passes and has yardage totals of 87, 108 and 43.
Take the OVER 33.5 (-110), ‘cuz Austin 3:16 said so.
Where There’s a Wilson There’s a Way (Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Seattle meets up with a new-look Patriots team Sunday night and QB Russell Wilson still has a score to settle with them since Seattle’s improbable Super Bowl loss from the 1-yard line. In three career games (two wins and one huge loss), Wilson’s passing yardage totals have been 293, 247 and 348 – to go with eight touchdown passes.
His Over/Under for passing yards on Sunday Night Football is just 236.5 (-112 Over, -110 Under), which seems awfully low given his history.
Take Wilson and the OVER 236.5 (-112) and watch the passes fly.
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