The Miami Dolphins are 7-3. They have a 90 percent chance, per the New York Times, of winning the AFC East for the first time in 15 years. They have a quarterback who ranks among the top three in touchdown passes, passing yards and passer rating. They have the league’s most unstoppable wide receiver.
And they are thoroughly untrustable.
The Mike McDaniel era in south Florida has been defined by flashy, explosive performances, some bad injury luck and a lack of quality wins. The Dolphins have seven victories this season; only one came against a team that’s .500 or better. That’s the 5-5 Denver Broncos, who were in the midst of a 1-5 start when Miami stomped a mudhole in them and walked themselves dry for a 70-20 Week 3 win.
That’s the issue with this year’s NFL. A league that prides itself on parity has built a handful of sure-fire playoff teams but few no-doubt Super Bowl contenders. The Dolphins haven’t beaten anybody. The Kansas City Chiefs’ lack of receiving depth has made them vulnerable. The Philadelphia Eagles’ secondary concerns and inability to put opponents away could bite them come playoff time. The Baltimore Ravens remain forever trapped between “good” and “great.”
There’s a lot more to worry about than have confidence as the calendar flips over to winter. But as the two-thirds mark of the 2023 NFL regular season looms, here’s how we see all 32 teams shaking out.