8. New England Patriots
2019 record: 12-4 (+195 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 11th (Pass: 14 / Run: 15)
Defensive DVOA: 1st (Pass: 1 / Run: 6)
New Coaches: Lost OL coach Dante Scarnecchia
Added: DT Beau Allen, WR Damiere Byrd
Lost: QB Tom Brady, EDGE Kyle Van Noy, LB Jamie Collins Sr., DT Danny Shelton, C Ted Karras, S Duron Harmon
Key Draft Picks: S Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne (37th); EDGE Josh Uche, Michigan (60th); EDGE Anfernee Jennings, Alabama (87th); TE Devin Asiasi, UCLA (91st); TE Dalton Keene, Virginia Tech (101st)
Regression Alert: 1st in turnover margin; 2nd in fumble recovery percentage
Cam Newton is still looming as an option, but the closer we get to the summer, the more likely it is that the Patriots will actually go into the season with Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer competing for the starting quarterback job. If that’s the case, I have New England ranked too highly here. The offense still lacks talent at the skill positions, Dante Scarnecchia is gone so the offensive line could take a major step back, the defensive is in for some major regression after relying so much on turnovers in 2019, and, oh yeah, neither Stidham nor Hoyer are any good. We’re about to find out how the extent of Bill Belichick’s genius.
7. Dallas Cowboys
2019 record: 8-8 (+113 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 2nd (Pass: 5 / Run: 3)
Defensive DVOA: 19th (Pass: 23 / Run: 15)
New Coaches: Mike McCarthy, HC; Mike Nolan, Defensive coordinator
Added: DT Gerald McCoy, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, EDGE Aldon Smith, QB Andy Dalton
Lost: CB Byron Jones, EDGE Robert Quinn, WR Randall Cobb, C Travis Frederick
Key Draft Picks: WR CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma (17th); CB Trevon Diggs, Alabama (51st); DT Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma (82nd); CB Reggie Robinson, Tulsa (123rd); C Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin (146th); EDGE Bradlee Anae, Utah (179th)
Regression Alert: -3 Pythagorean wins; 29th in Adjusted Games Lost;
The Cowboys were so much better than 8-8 last year. A little regression would have been enough to push Dallas into the playoff picture. Throw in the roster additions and a coaching staff with a longer track record of success, and it’s hard not to think this shouldn’t be the overwhelming favorite in the NFC East. If the rookie class contributes, the Cowboys will be a threat to the NFC’s top teams.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
2019 record: 8-8 (-14 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 32nd (Pass: 30 / Run: 30)
Defensive DVOA: 3rd (Pass: 3 / Run: 3)
Added: FB Derek Watt, OG Stefen Wisniewski, TE Eric Ebron, DT Chris Wormley
Lost: DT Javon Hargrave, CB Artie Burns, LB Mark Barron
Key Draft Picks: WR Chase Claypool, Notre Dame (49th); EDGE Alex Highsmith, Charlotte (102nd); RB Anthony McFarland Jr., Maryland (124th)
Regression Alert: 7th in turnover margin
While the rest of us wish we could go back to how things were in 2019, the Steelers must be happy to have escaped the year. It started with Antonio Brown forcing his way out of Pittsburgh, got even worse when Ben Roethlisberger’s elbow blew up early in the season and then culminated with the supposed franchise quarterback in waiting getting benched for a dude named Duck and getting bonked on the head with a helmet. Somehow, despite all of that, the Steelers managed to win eight games, mostly thanks to a defense that finished third in DVOA. With Roethlisberger coming back and the Patriots losing Tom Brady, the Steelers should slot in right behind Baltimore and Kansas City in the AFC hierarchy.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2019 record: 7-9 (+9 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 22nd (Pass: 18 / Run: 26)
Defensive DVOA: 5th (Pass: 12 / Run: 1)
Added: QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski
Lost: QB Jameis Winston, WR Breshad Perriman, EDGE Carl Nassib
Key Draft Picks: T Tristan Wirfs, Iowa (13th); S Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota (45th); RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Vanderbilt (76th); WR Tyler Johnson, Minnesota (161st)
Regression Alert: 31st in Adjusted Games Lost; 28th in turnover margin
Is Tom Brady’s declining play a major concern? Sure, but he won’t have to do as much heavy lifting in Tampa. Bruce Arians will have to adjust his offense to fit what Brady does best, but there’s just too much talent on the roster for this not to work. As long as the quarterback doesn’t throw 30 interceptions, that is.
4. San Francisco 49ers
2019 record: 13-3 (+169 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 7th (Pass: 8 / Run: 12)
Defensive DVOA: 2nd (Pass: 2 / Run: 11)
Added: LT Trent Williams
Lost: DT DeForest Buckner, WR Emmanuel Sanders
Key Draft Picks: DT Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina (14th); WR Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State (25th)
Regression Alert: 7-3 coin flip games; 6th in Adjusted Games Lost
The 49ers were tremendously lucky in close games and that isn’t likely to continue. But that luck wasn’t needed until the defense was decimated by injuries during the second half of the season. If the Niners are healthier in 2020 — and they should be — they might be even better than they were during the 2019 regular season.
3. New Orleans Saints
2019 record: 13-3 (+117 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 4th (Pass: 3rd / Run: 10th)
Defensive DVOA: 11th (Pass: 13th / Run: 5th)
Added: S Malcolm Jenkins, WR Emmanuel Sanders
Lost: S Vonn Bell, CB Eli Apple, LB A.J. Klein
Key Draft Picks: C/G Cesar Ruiz, Michigan (24th); LB Zack Baun, Wisconsin (74th); TE Adam Trautman, Dayton (105th)
Regression Alert: 2nd in turnover margin; 1st in fumble recovery percentage; 26th in Adjusted Games Lost
The Saints have the deepest roster in the NFL. There isn’t really a weakness on the depth chart. Drew Brees is older and his arm isn’t as strong as it once was, but until that precision starts to go, he’ll continue to be one of the better quarterbacks in the league. The defense looks better on paper after the Malcolm Jenkins signing tied the secondary together. Injuries and a reversal of turnover luck are the only way this team isn’t at the top of the NFC standings come December.
2. Baltimore Ravens
2019 record: 14-2 (+249 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 1st (Pass: 1 / Run: 1)
Defensive DVOA: 4th (Pass: 4 / Run: 20)
Added: DE Calais Campbell, DE Derek Wolfe
Lost: DT Michael Pierce, TE Hayden Hurst, CB Brandon Carr
Key Draft Picks: LB Patrick Queen, LSU (28th); RB JK Dobbins, Ohio State (55th); DT Justin Madubuike, Texas A&M (71st); WR Devin Duvernay, Texas (92nd); LB Malik Harrison, Ohio State (98th); OG Ben Bredeson, Michigan (143rd)
Regression Alert: 3-0 in coin flip games; 6th in turnover margin; 3rd in fumble recovery percentage
We know the Ravens are going to be one of the very best teams in the NFL next season. But will they be ready to contend with a team like the Chiefs? That’s going to come down to Lamar Jackson’s progression as a passer. As good as the league’s MVP was in 2019, he’ll have to be even better if Baltimore is going to compete with Kansas City — even after the front office addressed its most pressing needs during the offseason.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2019 record: 12-4 (+143 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 3rd (Pass: 2 / Run: 14)
Defensive DVOA: 14th (Pass: 6/ Run: 29)
Added: None
Lost: CB Kendall Fuller, EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah
Key Draft Picks: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU (32nd); LB Willie Gay Jr., Mississippi State (63rd); OT Lucas Niang, TCU (96th)
Rarely do we see the Super Bowl champs go through an offseason without losing any major contributors. The Chiefs are bringing back everyone and were able to fill some holes in the draft with the picks of Willie Gay Jr. and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who gives Andy Reid another toy in the passing game, which is were the LSU product’s impact will really be felt. This team won 12 games with Patrick Mahomes missing time a year ago. If he stays healthy for the full slate of games, some records might be broken.
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