16. Cleveland Browns
2019 record: 6-10 (-58 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 20th (Pass: 21 / Run: 8)
Defensive DVOA: 22nd (Pass: 17 / Run: 30)
New Coaches: Kevin Stefanski, HC; Alex Van Pelt, Offensive coordinator; Joe Woods, Defensive coordinator
Added: OT Jack Conklin, TE Austin Hooper, QB Case Keenum, CB Kevin Johnson, DT Andrew Billings, S Andrew Sendejo
Lost: S Damarious Randall, LB Joe Schobert
Key Draft Picks: OT Jedrick Wills, Alabama (10th); S Grant Delpit, LSU (44th); DT Jordan Elliott, Missouri (88th); LB Jacob Phillips, LSU (97th); TE Harrison Bryant, FAU (115th)
Regression Alert: 26th in turnover margin
Well, Freddie Kitchens and his inexperienced coaching staff is gone, which is a good start. If Kevin Stefanski’s staff is just competent, the Browns have enough talent to finally break through and make the playoffs. Especially after the front office addressed the offensive line issue that plagued this offense in 2019. If we see the Baker Mayfield we saw at the end of his rookie season, the Browns will be playing in January.
15. Tennessee Titans
2019 record: 9-7 (+71 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 6th (Pass: 6 / Run: 5)
Defensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 21 / Run: 9)
Coaching changes: No replacement for Dean Pees hired
Added: EDGE Vic Beasley
Lost: QB Marcus Mariota, OT Jack Conklin, DT Jurrell Casey, TE Delanie Walker
T Isaiah Wilson, Georgia (29th); CB Kristian Fulton, LSU (61st); RB Darrynton Evans, App State (93rd)
Regression Alert: 30th in Adjusted Games Lost
The Titans said goodbye to several mainstays on the roster and made a significant bet on Ryan Tannehill’s breakout last season being real. If it wasn’t, the Titans will fall back into mediocrity. If it was real, they’ll challenge for the AFC South title. Tennessee’s most significant loss was not a player, though. Defensive coordinator Dean Pees retired and Mike Vrabel is going with a coordinator by committee approach in 2020.
14. Philadelphia Eagles
2019 record: 9-7 (+31 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 17 / Run: 13)
Defensive DVOA: 12th (Pass: 16 / Run: 4)
New Coaches: Press Taylor, Pass-game coordinator; Jeff Stoutland, Run-game coordinator; Rich Scangarello, Senior offensive assistant
Added: CB Darius Slay, DT Javon Hargrave, WR Marquise Goodwin
Lost: OT Jason Peters, S Malcolm Jenkins, WR Nelson Agholor, CB Ronald Darby, RB Jordan Howard
Key Draft Picks: WR Jalen Reagor, TCU (21st); QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (53rd); LB Davion Taylor, Colorado (103rd); S K’Von Wallace, Clemson (127th); OT Jack Driscoll, Auburn (145th); WR John Hightower, Boise State (168th)
Regression Alert: 27th in fumble recovery percentage
The Eagles reshuffled their coaching staff, traded for Darius Slayton and signed Javon Hargraves, and … didn’t really do much else. That’s a bit concerning after how flawed this team looked in 2019. All of the issues with this team last year could very well be issues again. The successes receiving corps is contingent on a rookie (Jalen Reagor) and the health of two receivers (DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery) who are never healthy. There still isn’t a true outside corner on the roster. And the offensive coaching staff is still largely the same, just with different titles. If Carson Wentz gets hurt, this could be a disaster that has us wondering just how safe Doug Pederson’s job is by the end of the season.
13. Seattle Seahawks
2019 record: 11-5 (+7 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 5th (Pass: 4 / Run: 6)
Defensive DVOA: 18th (Pass: 15 / Run: 26)
Added: TE Greg Olsen, EDGE Bruce Irvin, C B.J. Finney, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, OT Brandon Shell, CB Quinton Dunbar
Lost: DT Quinton Jefferson, EDGE Ezekiel Ansah, OT Germain Ifedi, OT George Fant, OG Mike Iupati, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney*, C Justin Britt, OG D.J. Fluker
Key Draft Picks: LB Jordyn Brooks, Texas Tech (27th); EDGE Darrell Taylor, Tennessee (48th);
OG Damien Lewis, LSU (69th)
Regression Alert: 5-1 in coin flip games; +3 Pythagorean wins; 27th in Adjusted Games Lost
The 2019 Seahawks had no business being a playoff team. But thanks to unsustainable luck and Russell Wilson’s very sustainable brilliance, it somehow happened. Just don’t bet on it happening again. The Seahawks aren’t going to win 11 one-possession games. They’re probably not going to be one of the healthiest teams in the league again. Or maybe it will, as the Seahawks do not abide by the natural laws of football. Who needs an offensive line or a pass rush Wilson and Pete Carroll’s never-wavering optimism?
12. Indianapolis Colts
2019 record: 7-9 (-12 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 19th (Pass: 24 / Run: 7)
Defensive DVOA: 17th (Pass: 19 / Run: 19)
Added: DT DeForest Buckner, QB Philip Rivers, CB Xavier Rhodes
Lost: EDGE Jabaal Sheard, TE Eric Ebron, WR Devin Funchess
Key Draft Picks: WR Michael Pittman Jr., USC (34th); RB Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (41st); S Julian Blackmon, Utah (85th)
Regression Alert: 2-4 in coin flip games
The Colts will eventually have to find a young quarterback to build around, but landing Philip Rivers should push this team back into the playoffs after Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement submarined what was supposed to be a promising 2019 campaign. DeForest Buckner could be the missing piece for what has been a solid defense for the past two years. If Michael Pittman is as good as I think he’ll be, this offense might be a top-10 unit. If it is, Indy is winning the AFC South.
11. Green Bay Packers
2019 record: 13-3 (+63 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 8th (Pass: 11 / Run: 4)
Defensive DVOA: 15th (Pass: 9 / Run: 23)
Added: LB Christian Kirksey, OT Ricky Wagner, WR Devin Funchess
Lost: LB Blake Martinez, OT Bryan Bulaga, CB Tramon Williams, WR Geronimo Allison, TE Jimmy Graham
Key Draft Picks: QB Jordan Love, Utah State (26th); RB AJ Dillon, Boston College (62nd); TE Josiah Deguara, Cincinnati (94th)
Regression Alert: +3 Pythagorean wins; 4th in turnover margin
Let’s get one thing out of the way quickly: Despite what that record says, the Packers were not 13-3 good in 2019. That’s the point differential of a 10-6 team, which is what we’re more likely to see in 2020. It could be even worse if the Packers don’t finish with a top-five turnover margin for a second consecutive season. This team desperately needed to get better in the offseason to keep up with the top team in the NFC. It didn’t.
10. Minnesota Vikings
2019 record: 10-6 (+104 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 10th (Pass: 10 / Run: 16)
Defensive DVOA: 7th (Pass: 7 / Run: 8)
New Coaches: Gary Kubiak, Offensive coordinator; Adam Zimmer and Andre Patterson, co-DCs
Added: DT Michael Pierce
Lost: WR Stefon Diggs, CB Trae Waynes, EDGE Everson Griffen, CB Mackensie Alexander, DT Linval Joseph, CB Xavier Rhodes
Key Draft Picks: WR Justin Jefferson, LSU (22nd); CB Jeff Gladney, TCU (31st); OT Ezra Cleveland, Boise State (58th); CB Cameron Dantzler, Mississippi State (89th); EDGE D.J. Wonnum, South Carolina (117th); EDGE James Lynch, Baylor (130th)
Regression Alert: 32 in Adjusted Games Lost; 5th in turnover margin
The Vikings’ roster is a lot thinner after an offseason exodus, and while a robust draft class should help fill some of those holes, you never know what to expect out of rookies — especially with an abbreviated offseason schedule. The biggest loss is obviously Stefon Diggs, who left a gaping void at the top of the receiver depth chart and I don’t think Justin Jefferson is capable of filling it just yet. The Vikings also have some injury regression headed their way after finishing as the healthiest team in 2019. Luckily for Minnesota, the biggest threat in the NFC North is coming off an even worse offseason.
9. Buffalo Bills
2019 record: 10-6 (+55 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 1st (Pass: 1st / Run: 1st)
Defensive DVOA: 6th (Pass: 5 / Run: 18)
Added: WR Stefon Diggs, EDGE Mario Addison, DT Vernon Butler, DT Quinton Jefferson, CB Josh Norman
Lost: EDGE Shaq Lawson, EDGE Lorenzo Alexander, CB Kevin Johnson, DT Jordan Phillips
Key Draft Picks: EDGE AJ Epenesa, Iowa (54th); RB Zack Moss, Utah (86th); WR Gabriel Davis, UCF (128th)
Regression Alert: Outperformed win expectation by 2 games based on DVOA
After the trade for Stefon Diggs, I’m not sure there’s a real weakness on this roster … except for the one at the quarterback position. If the Bills are going to fight off defensive regression, Josh Allen has to be better. I’ve written at length why I’m skeptical about him taking a big step forward, but if he does, the Bills aren’t just the favorites in the AFC East. They’d be capable of challenging the Chiefs and Ravens at the top of the conference.
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