24. Chicago Bears
2019 record: 8-8 (-18 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 25th (Pass: 19 / Run: 29)
Defensive DVOA: 8th (Pass: 8 / Run: 13)
New Coaches: Bill Lazor, Offensive coordinator
Added: QB Nick Foles, EDGE Robert Quinn, TE Jimmy Graham, CB Artie Burns
Lost: CB Prince Amukamara, WR Taylor Gabriel, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, EDGE Leonard Floyd, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, OG Kyle Long
Key Draft Picks: TE Cole Kmet, Notre Dame (43rd); CB Jaylon Johnson, Utah (50th)
The Bears didn’t improve the quarterback position, so it’s hard to see this team taking a major step forward after what was a sobering 2019 season. Without much in the way of cap space or draft capital, Chicago was unable to fill in the gaps on the depth chart. Robert Quinn was really the only impact player added, so the 2020 Bears could look an awful lot like the 2019 Bears.
23. Houston Texans
2019 record: 10-6 (-7 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 16th (Pass: 16 / Run: 11)
Defensive DVOA: 26th (Pass: 26 / Run: 22)
New Coaches: Anthony Weaver, Defensive coordinator
Added: RB David Johnson, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Randall Cobb
Lost: WR DeAndre Hopkins, DT D.J Reader, CB Jonathan Joseph
Key Draft Picks: DT Ross Blacklock, TCU (40th); EDGE Jonathan Greenard, Florida (90th); OT Charlie Heck, UNC (126th); CB John Reid, Penn State (141st); WR Isaiah Coulter, Rhode Island (171st)
Regression Alert: +2 Pythagorean wins
Even if the Texans hadn’t lost their best receiver and replaced him with an injury-prone Brandin Cooks and a washed Randall Cobb, the Texans would have been a popular pick to fall out of the playoffs. Mostly due to the fact that they were the only playoff team to post a negative point differential in 2019. Houston didn’t add much talent in the draft and the offseason additions were straight out of 2016. Even Deshaun Waton’s brilliance may not be enough to prevent this team from plummeting to the bottom of the AFC standings.
22. Detroit Lions
2019 record: 3-12-1 (-82 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 18th (Pass: 15 / Run: 27)
Defensive DVOA: 28th (Pass: 29 / Run: 17)
New Coaches: Cory Undlin, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB Desmond Trufant, LB Jamie Collins Sr., DT Danny Shelton, OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, S Duron Harmon
Lost: CB Darius Slay, G Graham Glasgow, DT Damon Harrison, EDGE Devon Kennard
Key Draft Picks: CB Jeffrey Okudah, Ohio State (3rd); RB D’Andre Swift, Georgia (35th); EDGE Julian Okwara, Notre Dame (67th); G Jonah Jackson, Ohio State (75th); G Logan Stenberg, Kentucky (121st)
Regression Alert: 1-5-1 in “coin flip” games; -3 Pythagorean wins;
The Lions have all the makings of a playoff sleeper. Before Matt Stafford’s injury, the passing game was looking good, and the Lions were competitive with some of the better teams in the league. The wheels eventually fell off, but it looks like the Lions have regression on the side after losing five “coin flip” games in 2019. That’s not going to happen again. If Patricia can just get the defense playing at a league-average level, the Lions could challenge for what looks like a weakened NFC North.
21. Los Angeles Rams
2019 record: 9-7 (+30 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 17th (Pass: 13 / Run: 20)
Defensive DVOA: 9th (Pass: 10 / Run: 10)
New Coaches: Brandon Staley, Defensive coordinator; Kevin O’Connell, Offensive coordinator
Added: DT A’Shawn Robinson, EDGE Leonard Floyd
Lost: RB Todd Gurley, WR Brandin Cooks, LB Cory Littleton, EDGE Dante Fowler Jr., CB Nickell Robey-Coleman, S Eric Weddle, EDGE Clay Matthews
Key Draft Picks: RB Cam Akers, Florida State (52nd); WR Van Jefferson, Florida (57th); EDGE Terrell Lewis, Alabama (84th); S Terrell Burgess, Utah (104th)
Regression Alert: 0-4 in coin flip games
As poorly as things went for the Rams in 2019, they were just a couple of lucky breaks away from getting back to the playoffs. Los Angeles finished 0-4 in close games and actually had a better point differential than the 11-5 Seahawks. Considering that, you might think the Rams are a good bounce-back candidate, but, as a result of their poor cap management, a lot of talent walked out the door during the offseason … and there wasn’t much coming back in. The offensive line was the biggest issue last season. Look at that list of additions. There are no offensive linemen on it.
20. Denver Broncos
2019 record: 7-9 (-34 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 26th (Pass: 27 / Run: 19)
Defensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 14 / Run: 16)
New Coaches: Pat Shurmur, Offensive coordinator
Added: DT Jurrell Casey, CB A.J. Bouye, G Graham Glasgow, RB Melvin Gordon, TE Nick Vannett
Lost: CB Chris Harris Jr., C Connor McGovern, DE Derek Wolfe
Key Draft Picks: WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama (15th); WR KJ Hamler, Penn State (46th); CB Michael Ojemudia, Iowa (77th); C Lloyd Cushenberry, LSU (83rd); DT McTelvin Agim, Arkansas (93rd)
Regression Alert: 2-4 in coin flip games
The Broncos will be a popular playoff pick during the offseason, and there’s a good reason for that after John Elway injected talent on both sides of the ball. But, the success of the team will ultimately come down to the play of Drew Lock, and I’m not really a fan. If I’m wrong about Lock — which is very possible — Denver will be a dangerous team.
19. Los Angeles Chargers
2019 record: 5-11 (-8 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 12th (Pass: 9 / Run: 24)
Defensive DVOA: 21st (Pass: 20 / Run: 25)
Added: CB Chris Harris Jr., DT Linval Joseph, OT Bryan Bulaga, OG Trai Turner
Lost: QB Philip Rivers, OT Russell Okung, RB Melvin Gordon
Key Draft Picks: QB Justin Herbert, Oregon (6th); LB Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (23rd); RB Joshua Kelley, UCLA (112th)
Regression Alert: 2-4 in coin flip games; -3 Pythagorean wins; 3rd in Adjusted Games Lost; T32nd in turnover margin; 32nd in fumble recovery percentage
All of those regression numbers suggest the Chargers will be a far better team in 2020 with just average luck. Two concerns:
- The Chargers are cursed and I’ve been burned too many times being rational an expecting their luck to change
- It’s been a few years since Tyrod Taylor has looked like a good starter and Justin Herbert just isn’t good at football yet.
Now, if they sign Cam Newton, you can bump them up a spot or five, because there is talent all over the roster.
18. Arizona Cardinals
2019 record: 5-10-1 (-81 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 20 / Run: 2)
Defensive DVOA: 23rd (Pass: 27 / Run: 12)
Added: WR DeAndre Hopkins, EDGE Devon Kennard, DT Jordan Phillips, LB De’Vondre Campbell
Lost: RB David Johnson
Key Draft Picks: LB Isaiah Simmons, Clemson (8th); T Josh Jones, Houston (72nd); DT Leki Fotu, Utah (114th)
Regression Alert: 1-3-1 in coin flip games
I have all the confidence in Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray taking off in their second NFL season together, especially now that the Cardinals have a true No. 1 receiver who can win against man coverage. That should open up Arizona’s passing game, which never caught up with the run game last season. Here’s the problem: That defense couldn’t stop the pass, and it doesn’t really look any better on paper. Now, there are some good young players in the secondary and Patrick Peterson will be there for the entire season, so maybe it gets better. If that happens, the Cardinals could compete for a playoff spot.
17. Atlanta Falcons
2019 record: 7-9 (-18 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 15th (Pass: 12 / Run: 22)
Defensive DVOA: 20th (Pass: 25 / Run: 14)
New Coaches: Raheem Morris, Defensive coordinator
Added: EDGE Dante Fowler Jr., TE Hayden Hurst, RB Todd Gurley, EDGE Taco Harris
Lost: CB Desmond Trufant, RB Devonta Freeman, EDGE Vic Beasley Jr., LB De’Vondre Campbell, TE Austin Hooper
Key Draft Picks: CB A.J. Terrell, Clemson (16th); DT Marlon Davidson, Auburn (47th); C Matt Hennessey, Temple (78th)
Regression Alert: 3-0 in coin flip games; 28th in Adjusted Games Lost
The Falcons are stuck between a rebuild and trying to recapture the magic of 2016. Instead of blowing things up and starting over with a new head coach, they decided to bring back Dan Quinn for what seems like one last season. The offense is still strong but the defense could actually be worse than it was last season after a meh free agency period was followed by a draft that didn’t bring in any immediate contributors. Making matters worse, the Falcons are coming off a 7-9 season in which they won all of their coin-flip games and were one of the healthier teams in the league in terms of Adjusted Games Lost.
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