And now we wait. With free agency and the NFL draft in our rearview mirrors and months of uncertainty ahead, that’s all we can do. There are still a couple big names out there — Jadeveon Clowney and Cam Newton are the most notable ones — but, for the most part, rosters are pretty much set across the league as we head into the dead period of the season.
What better time to take look at the landscape of the league and power rank all 32 teams? That’s what I’ve done here. But before we get to the rankings, a little insight into my process.
A team’s 2019 performance obviously played a big factor, so I started out by making a list based on how teams finished a year ago. From there, I looked at how teams performed in statistics that are typically beyond a team’s control:
- I used Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost to gauge how lucky, or unlucky, a team was in the injury department.
- I looked at turnover margin and fumble recovery rates, two metrics that are volatile year-to-year.
- I looked at how teams performed compared to their Pythagorean Win Expectation, which carries more predictive power than your standard win-loss record.
- And I looked at how teams did in “coin-flip games,” a concept developed by FiveThirtyEight’s Ty Schalter that improves on the sometimes misleading “record in one-possession games” stat.
After reviewing every team’s offseason moves, I made adjustments to my initial list. So without further adieu, my post-offseason power ranking of all 32 NFL teams…
32. Jacksonville Jaguars
2019 record: 6-10 (-97 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 22 / Run: 28)
Defensive DVOA: 29th (Pass: 22 / Run: 31)
New Coaches: Jay Gruden, Offensive coordinator
Added: LB Joe Schobert, TE Tyler Eifert, CB Rashaan Melvin
Lost: DE Calais Campbell, CB A.J. Bouye, QB Nick Foles
Key Draft Picks: CB CJ Henderson, Florida (9th); EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU (20th); Round 2; WR Laviska Shenault, Colorado (42nd); DT Davon Hamilton, Ohio State (73rd); OT Ben Bartch, St. John’s (116th)
Regression Alert: 4th in Adjusted Games Lost
For the Jaguars to be a good football team, a lot of young players, including Gardner Minshew, will have to take a massive leap forward. That’s probably not going to happen, and with so many holes on the roster, it would not be surprising if things get ugly fast. I’m talking “Doug Marron fired by November” ugly. A lost season is probably what’s best for Jacksonville with the QB talent coming to the NFL in the next draft.
31. Washington Redskins
2019 record: 3-13 (-169 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 30th (Pass: 29 / Run: 25)
Defensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 24 / Run: 24)
New Coaches: Ron Rivera, HC; Scott Turner, Offensive coordinator; Jack Del Rio, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB Kendall Fuller, LB Thomas Davis Sr., S Sean Davis, OG Wes Schweitzer
Lost: OG Ereck Flowers, CB Josh Norman, CB Quinton Dunbar
Key Draft Picks: EDGE Chase Young, Ohio State (2nd); RB Antonio Gibson, Memphis (66th); OT Saahdiq Charles, LSU (108th); WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, Liberty (142nd)
Regression Alert: 2nd in Adjusted Games Lost
Do we really have any confidence in this team properly developing Dwayne Haskins? I mean, that’s really what this comes down to. If he’s good, the Redskins could be a sneaky wild card contender. If not, they’ll be drafting in the top-five once again next year. On the other side of the ball, I don’t have much confidence in a Ron Rivera-Jack Del Rio duo building a good defense in 2020.
30. Carolina Panthers
2019 record: 5-11 (-130 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 28th (Pass: 31 / Run: 9)
Defensive DVOA: 25th (Pass: 11 / Run: 32)
New Coaches: Matt Rhule, HC; Joe Brady, Offensive coordinator; Phil Snow, Defensive coordinator
Added: QB Teddy Bridgewater, S Tre Boston, OT Russell Okung, WR Robby Anderson
Lost: QB Cam Newton, OG Trai Turner, EDGE Mario Addison, DE Gerald McCoy, TE Greg Olsen, DT Vernon Butler, S Eric Reid, LB Luke Kuechly
Key Draft Picks: DT Derrick Brown, Auburn; EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State (38th); S Jeremy Chinn, SIU (64th); CB Troy Pride Jr., Notre Dame (113th); S Kenny Robinson, XFL (152nd)
Regression Alert: 29th in turnover margin
I don’t know if this team is attempting to start over or just rebuilding things on the fly. Either way, this is not a talented roster. The defense was among the worst in the league and lost some major pieces, including Luke Kuechly. The offense was even worse but there is more hope for improvement there with Teddy Bridgewater replacing Kyle Allen. Bridgewater has a limited season, though, and his conservative style isn’t going to work with the opposing offenses putting up 25 points a game every week.
29. New York Giants
2019 record: 4-12 (-110 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 13th (Pass: 26 / Run: 18)
Defensive DVOA: 24th (Pass: 31 / Run: 7)
New Coaches: Joe Judge, HC; Jason Garrett, Offensive coordinator; Patrick Graham, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB James Bradberry, LB Blake Martinez
Lost: EDGE Markus Golden, S Antoine Bethea, LB Alec Ogletree, OT Mike Remmers
Key Draft Picks: T Andrew Thomas, Georgia (4th); S Xavier McKinney, Alabama (36th); T Matt Peart, Connecticut (99th); CB Darnay Holmes, UCLA (110th)
Regression Alert: T32nd turnover margin
On paper, the Giants don’t look much better than they were a season ago but there is hope simply due to the fact that Daniel Jones is young and there’s a chance he takes the proverbial leap. I’m just not confident that happens, especially with Jason Garrett in charge of the offense. The defense remains a major concern, even after the James Bradberry signing. He’s a solid corner, but not one who is going to transform a secondary on his own.
28. Miami Dolphins
2019 record: 5-11 (-188 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 27th (Pass: 25 / Run: 32)
Defensive DVOA: 32nd (Pass: 32 / Run: 27)
New Coaches: Chan Gailey, Offensive coordinator; Josh Boyer, Defensive coordinator
Added: CB Byron Jones, EDGE Kyle Van Noy, EDGE Shaq Lawson, G Ereck Flowers, EDGE Emmanuel Ogbah, RB Jordan Howard, C Ted Karras, RB Matt Breida
Lost: None
Key Draft Picks: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama (5th); T Austin Jackson, USC (18th); CB Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn (30th); OG Robert Hunt, Louisiana (39th); DT Raekwon Davis, Alabama (56th); S Brandon Jones, Texas (70th); DT Solomon Kindley, Georgia (111th)
Regression Alert: 3-1 in coin-flip games; 5th in Adjusted Games Lost; 27th in turnover margin
The Dolphins officially kicked off Phase 2 of their rebuilding plan in the offseason and added A LOT of talent through the draft in free agency. But they had a lot more ground to make up than their 5-11 record implies. Even if Tua Tagovailoa comes in and establishes himself as the QB of the future, Miami is likely still another good offseason away from making a push for a playoff spot.
27. New York Jets
2019 record: 7-9 (-83 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 31st (Pass: 32 / Run: 31)
Defensive DVOA: 10th (Pass: 18 / Run: 2)
Added: OT George Fant, C Connor McGovern, CB Quincy Wilson
Lost: WR Robby Anderson, C Ryan Kalil, OT Brandon Shell, OT Kelvin Beachum, CB Trumaine Johnson
Key Draft Picks: T Mekhi Becton, Louisville (11th); WR Denzel Mims, Baylor (59th); S Ashtyn Davis, California (68th); EDGE Jabari Zuniga, Florida (79th); CB Bryce Hall, Virginia (158th)
Regression Alert: 1st in Adjusted Games Lost
The Jets had a good draft and they needed it after a disappointing free agency period. They’re still going to have a hard time protecting Sam Darnold, and that’s really what this season comes down to for New York. If the passing game isn’t vastly improved, this will be another wasted season. With Adam Gase in control, it’s hard to have any confidence in things improving.
26. Cincinnati Bengals
2019 record: 2-14 (-141 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 29th (Pass: 28 / Run: 23)
Defensive DVOA: 30th (Pass: 28/ Run: 28)
Added: CB Trae Waynes, CB Mackensie Alexander, DT D.J. Reader
Lost: DT Andrew Billings, TE Tyler Eifert, LB Nick Vigil
Key Draft Picks: QB Joe Burrow, LSU (1st); WR Tee Higgins, Clemson (33rd); LB Logan Wilson, Wyoming (65th); LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, Appalachian State (107th)
Regression Alert: 0-3 in coin flip games; -2 Pythagorean wins; 30th in turnover margin
I’m torn on the Bengals. They were very unlucky to finish with only two wins last season. Their record in close games was abysmal and they were at the bottom of the league in turnover margin. They should be better in both regards next season. A.J. Green is coming back, they took the best quarterback in the draft and they finally spent some money in free agency. But look at that depth chart. It’s still terribly thin and Bengals are in one of the tougher divisions in football. Their ceiling might be a competitive 6-10.
25. Las Vegas Raiders
2019 record: 7-9 (-106 Point differential)
Offensive DVOA: 9th (Pass: 7 / Run: 21)
Defensive DVOA: 31st (Pass: 30 / Run: 21)
Added: LB Cory Littleton, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, QB Marcus Mariota, TE Jason Witten, S Jeff Heath, EDGE Carl Nassib, WR Nelson Agholor
Lost: S Karl Joseph, CB Daryl Worley
Key Draft Picks: WR Henry Ruggs III, Alabama (12th); CB Damon Arnette, Ohio State (19th); RB Lynn Bowden Jr., Kentucky (80th); WR Bryan Edwards, South Carolina (81st)
Regression Alert: +2 Pythagorean wins
The Raiders were busy this offseason, but it’s fair to ask, is this roster significantly better than it was last season? The Cory Littleton signing was a good one, but he’s just one off-the-ball linebacker and that defense had major problems rushing the passer and covering receivers. Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden used their two first-rounders on a receiver who is more of a second banana and a cornerback with an athletic profile that doesn’t typically get prospects drafted on Day 1. Not to mention, based on point differential, the Raiders were lucky to win seven games last season.
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