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This week we mix things up. We take a pair of former teammates to both surpass their Over/Under numbers, a couple of highly-decorated players that will come up short of their projected numbers and a wide receiver scoring a touchdown to culminate a non-conference war of words.
Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 6 player prop bets to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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NFL Week 6 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:41 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.
Vikings RB Alexander Mattison OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-115)
– At Bears, 1 p.m. (FOX)
The loss of WR Justin Jefferson changes the dynamic in Minnesota in a huge way offensively. It has been several years that the Vikings haven’t had a top receiver like Jefferson or former Vikings Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen.
Moving forward, the Vikings may have to revert more to the run game, where the Vikings O-line is grading out strong in the run game. If Mattison gets 15 carries, it will be very difficult to keep him under this number.
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Saints WR Michael Thomas UNDER 49.5 receiving yards (-115)
– At Texans, 1 p.m. (FOX)
This may seem a little strange because Thomas has exceeded this number in every game this season. WR Chris Olave has been MIA in this offense the last 2 weeks so don’t be stunned to see QB Derek Carr focusing on him.
The Saints have 1 of the worst pass games in the league, and the Texans are showing signs of improvement. At this point of his career, Thomas has become a possession receiver who moves the chains much more than he dominates.
It’s hard to pick a guy who has beaten this number every week, but Thomas is likely going to need catch 5 passes to hit this number — and he hasn’t done that since Week 3.
Seahawks WR DK Metcalf scores a touchdown (+175)
– At Bengals, 1 p.m. (CBS)
The back-and-forth this week between the Bengals and Seahawks has been weird and unnecessary.
After WR Ja’Marr Chase made comments about always being open 2 weeks ago, Metcalf chose to step up the smack talk by claiming Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon would win his battle with Chase. That threw gas on a meaningless fire.
After interjecting himself into a beef that doesn’t involve him, it would seem that Metcalf is invested and, if he gets a shot in the red zone to win a 1-on-1 battle with a Bengals corner, it will help justify his crazy talk.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert UNDER 279.5 passing yards (-115)
– Host Cowboys, Monday 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
In his 2 home games this season, Herbert has thrown for just 229 and 167 yards. He did so against defenses with much less talent than the Cowboys.
The best part of this high number is that it doesn’t take into account that, despite being hammered by the 49ers last week, the Cowboys have a pretty good defense capable of limiting any pass game.
Include the return of RB Austin Ekeler, which helps the pass game but also brings back a running component that was largely missing while he was out. Every Ekeler run takes 30 seconds off the clock.
Another critical factor is that Herbert has a broken finger on his non-throwing hand and hasn’t played a full game with it (the Chargers are coming off their bye week). Any Cowboy defender who gets close to him will look to go after the injured hand. O/U numbers don’t take into account a player potentially coming out of the game if he re-injures an existing injury.
The only way he hits the Over is if Dallas gets ahead by double digits early and forces a shootout.
Bills WR Diggs OVER 83.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Giants, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Diggs hasn’t caught less than 6 passes in any game and is averaging 8 receptions. It doesn’t take long to hit a high number like this when you’re catching that many passes — Diggs has topped 100 yards in 4 of 5 games.
The Giants are a dumpster fire right now and aren’t going to be able to control the clock enough to negate QB Josh Allen and Diggs. The biggest concern on this bet is that the Giants defense can’t stop the run (they allow 5.3 yards a carry), and Buffalo could try to push that aspect of its offense.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that the Bills Mafia is used to seeing beat-downs. In their 2 home games this year, the Bills have won 38-10 and 48-20 — and a strong case can be made that the Raiders and Dolphins are better than the Giants right now.
When the Bills get a lead, they don’t take their foot off the gas — which should play well if you’re looking for a big day from Diggs.
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